MOSCOW, July 13 — Vladimir Putin has now been in power longer than any Kremlin leader since Joseph Stalin, and the mechanics of his longevity deserve closer reading. Born in Leningrad on October 7, 1952, he took the presidency in 1999 and has since cycled between the top job and the prime minister’s chair without ever really leaving the room. The catch, for those watching from the West, is that two decades of continuous rule have produced a foreign policy posture that grows more aggressive with each passing year.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked a clear escalation. Putin ordered the operation, and Russian forces have since responded militarily to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, including attacks on oil depots.
The conflict has drawn direct threats from the Kremlin: Putin has warned that he would authorize the use of nuclear weapons if Russia’s sovereignty were threatened. That is not diplomatic theater — it is a stated red line, and Western intelligence agencies take it seriously.
The sanction regime and its limits
The United States, the European Union, and other countries began sanctioning Putin personally in 2014, after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Those penalties have expanded significantly since the 2022 invasion, targeting his assets, his inner circle, and sectors of the Russian economy. But follow the money: the sanctions have not visibly loosened Putin’s grip on power.
State-run polls consistently show his approval rating above 70 percent inside Russia. Whether those numbers reflect genuine support or the absence of independent polling is a question the Kremlin does not encourage.
The International Criminal Court took an unprecedented step in March 2023, issuing an arrest warrant for Putin for alleged war crimes related to the deportation of Ukrainian children. The warrant means that Putin cannot travel to any of the 123 ICC member states without risk of arrest. In practice, it has not altered his daily operations — he has not left Russia for any ICC-jurisdiction country since the warrant was issued — but it has further isolated him diplomatically.
What to watch next
The key question for the remainder of 2026 is whether Putin’s calculus on nuclear threats will shift as Ukrainian capabilities improve. He has already shown willingness to escalate in response to strikes on Russian infrastructure, including oil depots. The West, under the Trump administration, has maintained its own red lines, but the mechanics of de-escalation grow more brittle the longer the war grinds on.
On closer reading, Putin’s strategy appears to be one of endurance: wait out Western political will, keep domestic approval high through state media control, and use the nuclear threat as a shield against direct NATO intervention. Whether that formula holds through another winter is the open question.
