Nine months have passed since Myanmar’s military leadership formally endorsed the ASEAN five-point consensus, yet the agreement remains entirely unimplemented. The plan, signed in April 2021 by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, was designed as the regional bloc’s primary response to the February 2021 coup.
It demanded an immediate cessation of hostilities, inclusive dialogue among all parties, and unhindered humanitarian access. None of these conditions have been met. The junta has consistently blocked aid deliveries, refused negotiations with opposition groups, and prevented a special ASEAN envoy from meeting detained civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who now faces multiple criminal charges.
The human toll continues to mount. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, over 1,400 civilians have been killed and more than 10,000 arrested since the military takeover.
The crackdown has targeted both pro-democracy protesters and armed resistance groups, with the death count rising steadily. The failure has exposed deep divisions within ASEAN. Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen, who chairs the bloc in 2022, acknowledged during a December 28 press conference in Phnom Penh that the five-point consensus remains the only available framework but is being disregarded by the military. He warned that ASEAN’s credibility is at risk if it cannot enforce the plan.
However, Hun Sen’s own close ties to Myanmar’s military—he was the first foreign leader to visit the junta after the coup in 2021—have led critics to question whether Cambodia can apply meaningful pressure as chair. On the other side, member states including Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines are pushing for stronger measures.
Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah stated on December 19, 2021, that ASEAN should consider excluding the junta from all meetings and summits until it complies with the consensus. The argument from this camp is that engagement has failed and that the junta only responds to pressure. This dilemma is not new for ASEAN, which has historically operated on principles of consensus and non-interference in members’ internal affairs.
Myanmar joined the bloc in 1997, and for years ASEAN avoided confronting its military rulers. The 2021 coup broke that tacit arrangement, forcing a response.
But the consensus required to act has also paralyzed action. The five-point consensus was a compromise that condemned nothing, imposed no sanctions, and relied entirely on the junta’s word—a word that has proven worthless. The crisis inside Myanmar continues to deepen.
Armed resistance has expanded beyond initial pro-democracy protests, with ethnic armed groups joining the fight. The military has responded with airstrikes and artillery in civilian areas.
Millions are displaced and in need of food and medicine. ASEAN’s credibility is on the line. The bloc has excluded the junta’s political representatives from its summits, but that stopgap measure has not forced compliance.
The divide among member states may widen before it narrows, with those pushing for isolation arguing that anything less rewards intransigence, while those favoring engagement warn that cutting off contact cedes influence to China and Russia, both of which have supported the military. Neither camp has a clear path forward.
