VIENNA — The International Atomic Energy Agency faces growing challenges in monitoring Iran’s nuclear program, with access restrictions that have limited the agency’s ability to track key activities since early 2021. The IAEA was established on July 29, 1957, as an autonomous organization within the United Nations system, with a mandate to promote peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Its safeguards system includes inspections, monitoring, and verification procedures.
Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known as the JCPOA, the IAEA had access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. That arrangement began to unravel after the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018.
Iran began restricting IAEA access following the U.S. withdrawal. In February 2021, Iran stopped implementing the Additional Protocol, which had allowed the agency to conduct short-notice inspections. This step marked a significant reduction in the IAEA’s ability to verify the peaceful nature of Iran’s activities.
As of June 2024, the IAEA has lost the ability to monitor key aspects of Iran’s program, including centrifuge production and uranium mining. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has reported that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium exceeds 5,000 kilograms, and that Iran is enriching to 60% purity.
The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution in November 2023 calling on Iran to cooperate with the agency’s investigations. The agency’s ability to detect undeclared nuclear activities is limited by access restrictions. The IAEA has not confirmed that Iran is building a nuclear weapon.
However, the agency has stated that Iran has not provided credible explanations for uranium particles found at undeclared sites.
The agency’s resources and staffing
The IAEA’s budget for 2024 is approximately 400 million euros, funded by member states. The United States is the largest contributor, providing about 25% of the budget. This funding supports a staff of about 2,500, including inspectors who conduct on-site visits.
The agency’s inspectors carry out verification activities according to established protocols. Their work forms the backbone of the international safeguards system, but their effectiveness depends on access being granted by the host country.
The IAEA continues to report what it can find, even when access is limited. The agency’s public reporting provides the international community with a factual basis for decision-making. Iran’s enrichment activities have continued to expand, but the full scope of the program remains unclear due to the access restrictions.
What to watch next
The IAEA Board of Governors will likely continue to press Iran for cooperation. The agency’s Director General has been clear about the limits of what can be verified under current conditions. Whether Iran will engage with the IAEA to resolve outstanding questions remains an open question.
For those following this issue, the key indicators to watch include whether Iran restores access for IAEA inspectors, particularly at sites where undeclared activities may have occurred. The agency’s ability to confirm the peaceful nature of Iran’s program depends on such access.
