BERLIN, July 16 — The shift is already visible in the polling data, and it points to a German political landscape that could look very different after September 28. The 2025 federal election, which will elect the 21st Bundestag and determine the successor to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is shaping up to be a test of democratic resilience in Europe’s largest economy. The far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has been polling at 20% as of January 2025, according to the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.
That is a significant jump from previous cycles, and it places the party, led by Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel, in a position to potentially block coalitions or force unprecedented alliances. The election will use a mixed-member proportional representation system, with 299 constituencies and 299 list seats, plus overhang and leveling seats.
The last election in 2021 saw a voter turnout of 76.6%. Chancellor Olaf Scholz leads the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has governed in coalition since December 2021. The main opposition comes from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz.
The Greens, under Robert Habeck, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Christian Lindner, round out the traditional centrist bloc. Watch this space — if the AfD holds its polling strength, the arithmetic of coalition-building becomes far more complex.
Election Integrity Under a Microscope
The German Federal Constitutional Court has ruled that election integrity is paramount, a statement that carries extra weight this cycle. The government has established a special task force to monitor foreign influence. The trend underneath is clear: democracies across Europe are bracing for interference campaigns, and Germany is no exception.
The election is being closely watched by both the EU and NATO, reflecting Germany’s status as the largest economy in Europe and a key ally. What’s changing is the level of institutional preparation.
The task force represents a formal, proactive stance — a recognition that foreign actors may attempt to exploit Germany’s open political system. The court’s ruling adds a constitutional layer to that defense.
The Coalition Calculus
Under the current system, no single party is likely to win an outright majority. The SPD, CDU, Greens, and FDP have all governed in various combinations in recent decades. But a 20% AfD presence changes the math.
If the centrist parties cannot form a stable coalition, Germany could face prolonged negotiations or even a minority government. The EU and NATO are watching closely because a paralyzed Berlin would ripple across European defense and economic policy.
Chancellor Scholz’s coalition has governed since December 2021, but the election will test whether voters reward stability or seek change. Friedrich Merz’s CDU has been positioning itself as a return to conservative fiscal and security policies. Robert Habeck’s Greens are pushing climate action as a core issue, while Christian Lindner’s FDP argues for fiscal discipline and market liberalization.
What to Watch Next
The September 28 date is fixed, but the campaign is already underway. The AfD’s polling strength will be tested against the government’s task force efforts and the court’s integrity rulings. The trend underneath is the broader European question: can established parties hold the center when the far-right captures a fifth of the electorate?
Watch this space — the answer will shape German policy for years to come, and it will signal to allies whether Berlin can still act decisively on defense, climate, and economic coordination.
