BEIJING, July 28 — China is quietly trying to broker a halt to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping — a diplomatic gamble that, if it works, would hand Beijing a major win and could start easing the broader Yemen war. Here’s what it means in plain terms: the Houthis have been launching strikes on commercial vessels in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, and China is now acting as go-between. But they’ve set tough conditions.
The Houthis say any ceasefire depends on a full end to Israeli military operations in Gaza and the lifting of the Israeli blockade there, according to officials familiar with the talks. The Israel-Hamas war, which started October 7, 2023, has shown no signs of resolution as of March 2025, with intermittent ceasefires and no permanent peace.
That complicates any move on shipping. Meanwhile, the US and UK continue airstrikes against Houthi targets, and the Houthis have vowed to attack any ship they consider linked to those nations. So the current situation is a standoff with multiple sides firing, and China trying to get everyone to step back for a moment.
China’s leverage problem — and Iran’s role
China lacks military leverage over the Houthis. Think of it like trying to calm a storm by focusing on one wave — the wave might settle, but the storm can still churn. So Beijing must rely on its influence with Iran, which has publicly supported the Houthis but is also engaged in negotiations with the US over its nuclear program.
The practical upshot: Iran may be willing to restrain the Houthis in exchange for economic relief from sanctions. That’s the key leverage point.
The UN Special Envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has welcomed China’s engagement but remains focused on a broader political settlement for the entire Yemen conflict. Analysts warn that any deal limited to shipping might be temporary, as the Houthis could resume attacks if their conditions are unmet. The Chinese initiative also risks being undermined by ongoing US-Iran tensions, which are very much alive.
What to watch next
The big question is whether Iran sees enough benefit in sanctions relief to actually pressure the Houthis, and whether any ceasefire on shipping holds long enough to build trust. Without progress on the Gaza front or a broader Yemen peace process, a narrow shipping deal could prove fragile. For now, China’s move is a notable diplomatic play — but it’s far from a sure thing.
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