KYIV, July 15 — The shift in peace negotiations for the Russo-Ukrainian War is no longer about whether talks will happen. The trend underneath is a crowded field of mediators, each pushing a different framework, with no single track gaining decisive momentum. As of February 2025, multiple peace initiatives are underway.
The U.S.-led mediation is being handled by Special Envoy Keith Kellogg. The European Union is working through the European Peace Facility.
And a Chinese-backed proposal from 2023 called for a ceasefire and territorial integrity. That’s three major international players, each with their own vision for ending the war. The Ukrainian government, led by President Zelenskyy, has presented a 10-point peace formula.
It calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops, restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders, and a special tribunal for war crimes. Russia, meanwhile, has demanded recognition of its annexation of Crimea and Donbas, plus a neutral status for Ukraine — meaning non-NATO membership.
Watch this space: those positions are fundamentally incompatible.
The Summit That Keeps Sliding
The next major diplomatic milestone is the proposed peace summit in Switzerland. Originally scheduled for 2024, it was postponed to 2025. The aim is to gather over 100 countries to discuss a framework.
What’s changing is the timeline — and whether the summit can actually deliver a breakthrough when the core parties remain so far apart. On the U.S. side, Congress is debating further aid packages.
A supplemental bill worth a significant amount — reported at $60 billion — is stalled in the House of Representatives as of February 2025. That’s a concrete signal that Washington’s appetite for unlimited support may be cooling, even as the administration remains publicly committed.
What the Analysts See Coming
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War suggest that a frozen conflict or Korean War-style armistice is possible. But they see full resolution as unlikely in 2025 due to divergent positions on territorial control and security guarantees. The trend underneath is a grinding stalemate, not a peace deal.
So what to watch next. The Switzerland summit, if it happens, will test whether 100-plus countries can agree on a framework when the two warring parties cannot.
The stalled U.S. aid bill will signal whether Washington is prepared to sustain Ukraine’s position long enough to force a better negotiating hand. And the competing peace initiatives — U.S., EU, Chinese — will either converge or collide. That’s the real story.
