KYIV, July 15 — The war in Ukraine, now in its third calendar year, shows no signs of a decisive conclusion. As of early 2025, the front line has remained largely static since late 2023, with Russian forces controlling approximately 18% of Ukrainian territory. This includes Crimea, annexed in 2014, and parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts.
Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in June 2023 but made only limited gains. In early 2025, Russian forces have made incremental advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around the city of Avdiivka, which fell to Russian control in February 2024.
Diplomatic efforts have been stalled since the breakdown of talks in Istanbul in March 2022. The United Nations General Assembly has passed multiple resolutions condemning the invasion, the most recent on February 23, 2024, with 141 votes in favor. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 17, 2023, for alleged war crimes.
What the Endgame Looks Like
Analysts outline three potential scenarios for the conflict. The first is a frozen conflict with a demilitarized zone. The second is a negotiated settlement involving territorial concessions.
The third is continued attrition warfare. Which path the war takes depends on three variables: Western military aid, Russian domestic stability, and the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which saw Donald Trump elected in November 2024.
For now, the front remains static, the casualties continue to mount, and the diplomatic track is cold. The conflict in Ukraine is a complex and multifaceted issue, with deep historical and cultural roots. The region has long been a focal point of geopolitical tension, with various empires and nations vying for influence and control over the centuries.
This legacy of competition and conflict has contributed to the current situation, in which Ukraine finds itself at the center of a struggle for power and influence between Russia and the Western world. Understanding the historical context of the conflict is essential to grasping the nuances of the situation and the potential paths forward.
The international community has been closely watching the situation in Ukraine, with many countries and organizations offering support to the Ukrainian government and people. The United Nations, in particular, has played a key role in condemning the invasion and calling for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The organization’s General Assembly has passed numerous resolutions on the issue, reflecting the widespread international concern and opposition to the use of force.
Additionally, various international institutions and courts, such as the International Criminal Court, have been involved in efforts to hold those responsible for alleged war crimes accountable. The potential scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine have significant implications for the country, the region, and the world at large. A frozen conflict, for example, could lead to a prolonged period of instability and tension, with ongoing humanitarian and economic costs.
A negotiated settlement, on the other hand, could provide a path towards peace and reconstruction, but would likely require difficult compromises and concessions from all parties involved. Continued attrition warfare, meanwhile, would likely result in further suffering and devastation, with no clear end in sight.
As the international community considers these scenarios, it is clear that a peaceful and sustainable resolution to the conflict will require careful diplomacy, cooperation, and a commitment to upholding international law and human rights. The variables that will influence the course of the conflict, including Western military aid, Russian domestic stability, and the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, are complex and interconnected.
The provision of military aid, for example, can affect the balance of power on the ground, while also influencing the diplomatic dynamics and the calculations of the parties involved. Similarly, developments in Russia and the United States can have significant implications for the conflict, as these countries are key players in the international response to the crisis.
As the situation continues to evolve, it is essential to consider these factors and their potential impact on the search for a peaceful and lasting resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.
