KYIV, July 14 — Ukraine’s drone programme has evolved from a wartime expedient into a systematic, long-range strike capability that now regularly reaches targets more than 1,500 kilometres inside Russian territory. The mechanics here are worth unpacking, because the leap from a few hundred drones in 2022 to over 100,000 units in 2024, as reported by Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, represents not just industrial scaling but a strategic shift. The claim is that Ukraine can hit critical Russian infrastructure at depth without risking pilots.
The catch, on closer reading, is that this capability relies on a mix of imported systems and domestically produced platforms, each with distinct limitations and advantages. The Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and the US-provided Switchblade have been in the mix since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022.
But the real story is the homegrown hardware.
Homegrown reach
The ‘Liutyi’ drone, whose name translates to ‘Fierce’, entered service in 2023 and has a stated range of up to 1,000 kilometres, carrying a 50-kilogram warhead. Ukrainian officials have reported using modified drones to exceed that range, reaching targets such as the Salavat complex, which sits more than 1,500 kilometres from launch points. The drones are typically launched from within Ukrainian territory and navigate using GPS guidance — a relatively simple but effective method that keeps production costs down and allows for rapid iteration.
Follow the money, or rather follow the production numbers. A few hundred units in 2022 ballooned to over 100,000 in 2024, according to Umerov’s figures.
That scale changes the calculus. Ukraine can now afford to expend drones on targets that might previously have been considered too distant or too well defended.
Deep-strike chronology
The January 29, 2025 strike on facilities 1,500 kilometres away is the latest in a series of deep-penetration attacks. In January 2024, Ukraine struck the Ust-Luga terminal and the Tuapse refinery, both deep inside Russia. In December 2022, the Engels-2 airbase was hit.
Each of these strikes shares a common thread: they aim to disrupt Russian logistics and morale without putting Ukrainian pilots in harm’s way. The targeting logic is straightforward.
Refineries, airbases, and industrial complexes are fixed infrastructure — hard to move, hard to hide. A drone carrying a 50-kilogram warhead may not destroy a refinery outright, but repeated strikes force repairs, divert resources, and compound the psychological pressure on a military already stretched across a long front line.
