“Crimea is becoming an overseas territory for Russia.” So wrote Ihor Lutsenko, a Ukrainian soldier and co-founder of the Air Intelligence Support Center, on Facebook, describing the land corridor that links Russian-occupied southern Ukraine to the peninsula. Civilians, he said, are no longer allowed to use it, because Ukrainian drones are already circling above.
The claim comes from Ukrainian military officials, who told DW that newly developed medium-range weapons now reach Russian logistics routes well beyond the front line. Drones were reportedly watching and striking the area around Mariupol, which would put parts of the corridor, some 160 kilometers (99 miles) from Crimea, under fire control. The Ukrainian military has put out many videos that purportedly show burned-out Russian vehicles along the road through occupied southern mainland Ukraine.
Lutsenko called the corridor a gain that Moscow once prized. “During the bloody and protracted war from 2022 to 2026, the creation of a land corridor to Crimea was seen as Moscow’s greatest potential achievement,” he wrote. “But it is now clear that this is a fleeting gain.” He added: “Of course, we won’t leave it at that.”
Control is still far off
Mykola Bielieskov, an adviser at the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, was more guarded. “If we had full control, Russian troops in the south would feel differently,” he told DW. He did say Russian troops were growing more vulnerable. Photo and video evidence, he said, shows Ukrainian strikes have become more effective at medium range.
“The Russians are less active now, even though their area of operations is quite large and there have been heavy attacks,” Bielieskov said. “We can’t speak of a turning point yet, it just means that the situation isn’t getting any worse for us.”
Technology buys a window
Experts credit technical advances for the progress. Among other kit, Ukrainian forces now have drones from the manufacturer Wild Hornets with AI systems built in.
Military expert and historian Mykhailo Zhyrokhov warned that the opening is narrow. He expects Russia to soon field more mobile fire groups and a protection plan for the roads along the corridor, nets against drones included. Even so, he said, that works in Ukraine’s favor: “Every defensive measure requires resources, and this is an additional burden for the Russians.” Moscow would have to spend money and divert resources to secure the route.
Surprise, in his view, is what makes the attacks effective, and it will fade. “As soon as something effective emerges, countermeasures follow,” he said, a lesson of four years of war. “That’s why this moment must be exploited to the fullest, while the Russians have not yet established effective air defense along this section of the front.”
Zhyrokhov listed steps to raise the pressure on Russian logistics: widen the drone attacks that have already worked, fit drones with heavier warheads to destroy armored vehicles, and pick new targets along the hundreds of kilometers of road. Hitting gas stations and repair shops, he argued, could disrupt supply more systematically than knocking out individual vehicles.
Bielieskov pointed to a limit of a different kind. “No matter how advanced the technologies are, they cannot reach their full potential without specialists,” he said. Robot-assisted warfare still leans heavily on people, and every unit working at medium range is short of trained personnel. That shortage, he said, ties into a wider manpower gap at the front.
