Ukraine can build $50 billion worth of weapons this year. So far it has contracts for no more than $15 billion of that.
The gap comes from Oleksandr Kamyshin, a presidential adviser on strategic affairs, in an interview with Forbes Ukraine summarised by Defender Media. Last year was similar: Ukrainian enterprises could have turned out $35 billion of weaponry but received orders worth $12 billion.
Foreign money, Ukrainian designs
Kamyshin said the defence industry has drawn $5 billion under the Danish model, a mechanism launched in 2024. Ukraine puts together a list of projects that need funding, and foreign governments pay Ukrainian defence firms to carry them out. The scheme has since grown into Build with Ukraine, under which production lines are set up in partner countries using Ukrainian know-how.
More than 10 joint venture agreements with Western companies have been signed. The goal by the end of the year is at least 10 production facilities running in European countries. Today, all of their output goes to Ukraine free of charge. “Perhaps as early as next year, countries will begin retaining a portion of the manufactured products for the needs of their own armed forces,” Kamyshin said.
Exports still on hold
No defence products have been exported yet, although Kamyshin says Ukraine has enough capacity to sell in every category. Export applications go to the State Service for Export Control and to a commission drawn from the Security Service, Defence Intelligence and the Ministry of Defence. A company must also hold a contract before it can get full authorisation. The Cabinet of Ministers, the National Security and Defence Council, the security services and manufacturers are coordinating the question, and a flat 10% tariff is among the ideas being discussed.
Buyers will need time as well. “Hypothetically, Poland needs to say: ‘We are no longer buying mortars – we are buying 100,000 FPV drones.’ This breaks its existing procedures,” Kamyshin explained, adding that changing procurement rules among Western partners will take at least a year.
What 2026 will focus on
Long-range projects, artificial intelligence applications and air defence systems top the list for this year. One objective is the creation of drone swarms. More than 10 manufacturers of cruise missiles and drone missiles are at various stages of development, and more than 20 makers of interceptor drones can scale up production. Kamyshin said Ukraine has been building more interceptor drones than it deploys since December.
