More than three years after Russian forces crossed the border, the war in Ukraine has settled into a grinding stalemate with no sign of breaking. The active frontlines remain concentrated in the eastern Donbas region, where fighting has been particularly intense around the cities of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka. Russian forces have also maintained military pressure in the south, including the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, keeping Ukrainian defences stretched across a sprawling front.
The Broadening Conflict and Its Roots
Ukraine, the second-largest nation on the European continent, has a long history as a contested territory. Its capital, Kyiv, was a center of East Slavic culture during the Kievan Rus’ period starting in the 9th century.
Over the centuries, various external powers vied for control of the land, and by the 18th century the Russian Empire had absorbed much of it. After the Russian Revolution in 1917, a short-lived republic formed before the area became a constituent part of the Soviet Union in 1922. The 1930s saw a man-made famine that killed millions.
Ukraine gained independence in 1991 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Tensions rose again in 2014 during the Euromaidan protests, a period that ended with Russia unilaterally occupying and annexing the Crimean Peninsula.
That event began a war between the two nations. The conflict escalated dramatically on 24 February 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion, initiating the deadliest war in Europe since World War II. The war has created a massive refugee crisis, with millions of people fleeing the country or becoming internally displaced.
Russian troops occupy a large share of Ukrainian territory, and the conflict continues to cause a high volume of military and civilian casualties.
Frontline Dynamics and the Battle of Bakhmut
Ukraine launched a significant counteroffensive in June 2023, managing to recapture some territory in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. That progress, however, slowed considerably by the winter of 2023. By early 2025, Russia had regained some ground in Donetsk, illustrating the volatile nature of the battlefield.
The Battle of Bakhmut stands as one of the war’s most brutal episodes. From August 2022 to May 2023, Russian forces, including mercenaries from the Wagner Group, fought for control of the city.
The Wagner Group’s role in that campaign underscored Moscow’s reliance on private military contractors to achieve tactical objectives at a high cost in lives. The human toll has been staggering. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has verified over 30,000 civilian deaths since February 2022, though the actual number is likely higher, as verification in active war zones remains incomplete.
Western intelligence estimates place military casualties at over 100,000 killed on each side, with hundreds of thousands more wounded. Ukraine has responded to its manpower needs with multiple waves of conscription, mobilising citizens across the country to fill the ranks.
Russia, for its part, has drawn on the Wagner Group and other mercenary forces to supplement its regular military.
No Ceasefire in Sight
As of March 2025, no ceasefire is in place. The war grinds on with no diplomatic breakthrough in sight.
The active frontlines remain concentrated in the eastern Donbas region, where Russian forces continue to press around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka, while also maintaining military pressure in the south, including the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Ukrainian defences remain stretched across a sprawling front, and the attrition shows no sign of relenting. Against this backdrop of grinding attrition, the war has settled into a grim stalemate that shows no sign of breaking, more than three years after Russian forces crossed the border.
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