KYIV, July 10 — Ukraine’s campaign of drone strikes against Russian oil facilities has emerged as a central pillar of its asymmetric warfare strategy, according to military planners in Kyiv. The approach is designed to degrade Moscow’s ability to fund and sustain its invasion by targeting the revenue streams that underwrite the war effort. Oil revenues account for an estimated 30% of Russia’s federal budget.
Each dollar lost to drone strikes reduces Moscow’s capacity to finance its military operations, making fuel infrastructure a high-value target in Ukraine’s broader campaign. The strategy was developed by Ukrainian military planners including Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
It focuses on attacking high-value targets with limited resources, a doctrine that reflects the asymmetric nature of the conflict. The strikes are part of a wider campaign that has also targeted Russian ammunition depots, airfields, and logistics hubs. On December 5, 2022, Ukrainian drones struck the Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast, damaging strategic bombers.
The drone program is supported by a network of Ukrainian defense companies, including Ukroboronprom, which has increased production of long-range drones. Russia has been forced to respond.
Moscow has deployed S-400 air defense systems to protect oil refineries, diverting resources from other priorities. But the campaign has also provoked retaliation. Russian forces launched massive missile attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the winter of 2023-2024, leaving millions without power.
The asymmetric approach is rooted in the concept of “strategic paralysis,” as articulated by military theorist John Boyd. The aim is to disrupt the enemy’s decision-making and logistics. The campaign has been effective in forcing Russia to divert resources to air defense, according to the source material.
The drone strikes are likely to continue as long as Ukraine can produce and launch the aircraft. Ukroboronprom’s increased production capacity suggests that Kyiv sees this as a long-term component of its war strategy.
