“Ready to see the next shadow showdown?” Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS), posted on Telegram on July 8. “Moscow will fall,” he added.
The post followed a night in which his drone crews hit nine tankers from Russia’s so-called shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov. By Brovdi’s count, the SBS has now struck 19 shadow fleet tankers, one cargo vessel and one ferry in the Kerch area over 72 hours. The day before, he reported eight tankers hit and said “the battle for fuel for Crimea in the Sea of Azov continues.”
Why the Azov Sea
The Sea of Azov is a main supply route for Russian forces fighting in Crimea and other occupied parts of southern Ukraine. Hitting ships on it is the point. In a statement, the SBS said that striking the enemy’s naval logistics makes it harder to deliver the fuel and ammunition Russian troops need, mainly in occupied Crimea.
Ukraine has also been attacking logistics, bridges, major highways and energy infrastructure on the peninsula in recent weeks. That has contributed to fuel shortages, and authorities there declared a state of emergency.
Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, put the aim bluntly to the Kyiv Independent. “This is about weakening the enemy’s capabilities, essentially striking at their logistics,” he said. “And our aim is to ensure that Crimea ceases to be a rear base for the entire southern group of Russian forces.” He said conditions in Crimea are getting worse for civilians and for the occupying military, though the military still has it easier, because it diverts resources away from the population.
Russia’s version
Crimea’s Russian-installed governor, Sergey Aksyonov, claimed air defenses stopped four Ukrainian attacks overnight and into the morning, shooting down 27 drones, with no casualties. Yury Slyusar, governor of Russia’s Rostov region, said two tankers were damaged in a drone attack in Taganrog Bay. Two people were hurt, he said, but there was no oil spill. Both vessels were sailing to Rostov-on-Don without cargo, one crew was evacuated, and the extent of the damage was still being assessed.
The money side
The shadow fleet is a clandestine network of hundreds of aging tankers that Russia uses to get around the G7 and European Union price cap sanctions placed on its energy exports after the 2022 invasion. By the National Security Journal’s account, it carries up to 75 percent of Russia’s seaborne oil trade and generates billions that fund the war.
The Royal United Services Institute, a London defense think tank, said Ukraine’s targeting of the fleet raises pressure on sanctions-busting shippers and insurers “at a time when Russian oil exports are already under strain.” Western governments have been acting too: British forces, backed by allies including France, have boarded, seized and detained suspect vessels, among them the Cameroon-flagged Smurtos.
The strikes belong to a 40-day strategic influence operation that President Zelenskyy approved and the Security Service of Ukraine runs. Begun in late June, it uses drones and long-range weapons against Russian energy infrastructure and military sites, aiming to squeeze Moscow’s war economy until it ends the war.
