In a significant turn of events marking the first shift on the battlefront since March 2020, a united front of opposition groups spearheaded by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and reinforced by Turkish-allied factions within the Syrian National Army (SNA), launched an unexpected offensive on November 27, christened as ‘Deterrence of Aggression.’ This swift assault led to the capture of Aleppo, a city known as Syria’s largest and its former commercial epicenter, within just 48 hours. The government forces, who had held the city for years, disintegrated under the pressure.
Losing Aleppo signifies a substantial loss for the Syrian government, as it has lost control over a key urban center that it had fought long and hard to reclaim. The rapid collapse of government positions suggests a strategic setback that goes beyond a mere tactical failure. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), historically the backbone of President Bashar al-Assad’s military, seems unable to hold its ground.
Reports suggest complete collapse of government forces in the face of the advance, raising questions about the territorial status quo that had been maintained since the Idlib ceasefire in March 2020. This ceasefire had frozen the frontlines, allowing Assad to establish control over most of the country, while opposition forces were confined to the northwest.
However, the offensive has breached this arrangement, targeting government positions in Aleppo and Hama Governorates. By November 30, the opposition had captured numerous towns and villages as they moved towards Hama, threatening a strategic highway. If Hama falls, the path to Damascus narrows significantly. The government’s capacity to safeguard its heartland is now in question.
The SAA, which has heavily relied on Russian air support and Iranian-backed militias throughout the conflict, seems unable to halt the opposition’s momentum on its own. The coordination between HTS and the SNA has resulted in a concentrated attack that the government forces have yet to match.
This is the first major military campaign by opposition forces since the ceasefire. The decision by HTS to launch it indicates a shift in the group’s self-evaluation. HTS has been a dominant force in the northwest for years, often controlling Idlib.
However, launching a multi-governorate offensive requires coordination, logistics, and a belief in the opposition’s superiority. The HTS and its allies appear to possess all three.
The implications of this development extend beyond Syria’s borders. Turkey supports the SNA, while Russia and Iran back the government. A rapid opposition advance poses a threat of pulling these powers into a more direct confrontation.
The risk is not just a military escalation, but a collapse of the fragile political framework that has contained the civil war since 2020. The stakes are high for civilians.
Aleppo is a densely populated city, and urban warfare often results in high casualties and displacement. The towns and villages captured during the advance towards Hama are home to thousands more. The last time opposition forces held Aleppo, the city faced a devastating siege and prolonged aerial bombardment by Russian and Syrian aircraft.
A repeat of such a scenario is a real possibility. As of now, the government has not launched a counteroffensive, the SAA has not regrouped, and the opposition is advancing.
The next few days will reveal whether this is a temporary breakthrough or a fundamental shift in the war. What is already clear is that the ceasefire that had held for nearly four years is no longer in effect. The Syrian civil war, though seemingly dormant, has returned to active combat.
