More than fifty warnings
The count has passed fifty. In the four years since the war in Ukraine began, Vladimir Putin has issued dozens of explicit or implicit nuclear threats, according to the National Security Journal. Depending on methodology, analysts put the total above fifty instances.
Early in the war, every nuclear comment dominated headlines and shook markets. Oil, wheat and gold all moved in 2022. By 2026, a new threat from Putin often produces minimal market reaction. Overuse has drained the shock value, the journal reported.
In February 2022, Putin warned outside powers against interference and placed strategic forces on heightened readiness. In September 2022, he said Russia would use all available means to defend its territory.
The sequence continued. Russia suspended participation in New START, the last remaining major arms-control framework with the United States, in February 2023. In May 2024, Russian forces ran tactical nuclear exercises near Ukraine. Those drills were publicly linked to Western discussions of deeper involvement in the war.
Russia later revised its nuclear doctrine. The new terms lowered the threshold for potential use. Attacks by non-nuclear states backed by nuclear powers could be treated as joint aggression, the journal said.
Each new Western weapons donation was initially feared as an escalation trigger: HIMARS, Patriots, Abrams, ATACMS, F-16s and Gripens. Each step happened. No nuclear response followed.
Over the years, a pattern emerged. The West escalated. Putin issued a nuclear warning. The West proceeded unhindered, providing aid, and Putin did not use nuclear weapons. That pattern has eroded his credibility on nuclear deployment, the journal added.
The arsenal behind the warnings
Russia still holds the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. The estimated stockpile is 5,580 warheads, with 1,700 strategically deployed. The country maintains a complete nuclear triad.
Land-based forces include the RS-24 Yars and RS-28 Sarmat ICBMs. Borei-class submarines carry Bulava missiles. Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers make up the air leg. With a fully operational second-strike capability, the question is not whether Russia can use nuclear weapons but when it would decide to use them.
Russia also has roughly 1,500–2,000 tactical nuclear weapons designed for battlefield use. Systems such as the Iskander-M and Kalibr are considered more politically usable than a full strategic exchange.
A conventional defeat is another scenario that could heighten nuclear risk. Russian doctrine has historically relied on nuclear weapons more than Western doctrine. Russia has struggled on conventional terms in Ukraine and cannot defeat NATO on conventional terms, so the nuclear arsenal offers a fallback option, the journal reported.
There is also the risk of accidental escalation. As the war increasingly revolves around long-range missiles, drones, and strikes deep into Russia, attacks could threaten nuclear infrastructure, which would increase instability.
The arsenal is real even if the warnings have so far been bluffs, the journal concluded.
