Russia is paying a heavy price for small territorial gains in Ukraine, according to a new assessment by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS), as reported by Axios. In a document released on September 24, the agency said Russian forces are suffering “heavy losses for marginal territorial gains.”
The casualty figures cited by Axios are large. The Russian military has taken more than one million casualties, killed and wounded together, since the full-scale invasion began. Over the summer, the estimated casualty rate ran ahead of the pace of recruitment.
Pressure beyond the front
The DDIS also pointed to a shift in Moscow’s behaviour. Russia is stepping up hybrid activity against Western countries, including sabotage and cyberattacks. The assessment links its conduct partly to Ukraine’s long-range strikes on critical targets inside Russia, which President Volodymyr Zelensky has called “long-range sanctions.”
The economy gets attention as well. The report warns of a risk of a “major crisis,” driven in part by high military spending and the effect of international sanctions.
Looking forward, Danish intelligence expects Moscow to keep up pressure on Ukraine and its partners. It sees no sign, for now, that Russia is preparing an imminent invasion of a NATO country.
