KYIV, July 11 — The shift is slow, grinding, and measurable. Nearly a decade after the conflict began, Russia still holds roughly 18% of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory, a figure that has proven stubbornly resistant to change despite Ukrainian counteroffensives. The territory under Russian control is not a single, contiguous block.
It stretches from the Kharkiv region in the northeast, snakes through the Donbas, and runs down to the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the south. This front line, as of early 2025, represents the static reality after months of positional warfare.
Key cities remain under Russian control. Mariupol, captured in May 2022 after a siege, is a ghost of its former self. Donetsk has been held by Russian-backed forces since 2014, making it a long-standing hub of separatist administration.
Melitopol, a strategic transport junction in the south, is also under occupation.
The Legal Fiction of Annexation
Russia’s claim to this land rests on shaky legal ground. The annexation of Crimea on March 18, 2014, followed a disputed referendum widely condemned by the international community. Then, in September 2022, Moscow doubled down, claiming annexation of four additional regions: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Here is the trend underneath that headline: Russia does not fully control any of those four regions. The annexation claims are a political and legal maneuver, not a reflection of military reality on the ground.
Ukraine’s Recaptured Ground
The total area under occupation has fluctuated significantly. It peaked at about 27% in March 2022, just weeks after the full-scale invasion began, as Russian forces pushed deep into the country. Ukrainian counteroffensives have since clawed back substantial territory.
The Kharkiv counteroffensive in September 2022 was a stunning success, pushing Russian forces back from much of that northeastern region. The liberation of Kherson city in November 2022 was another major victory, recapturing the only regional capital Russia had seized during the full-scale war.
These operations reduced the occupied area from its peak to its current level.
The Human Cost of Displacement
The war has created one of the largest displacement crises in Europe since World War II. The UN estimates that over 14 million Ukrainians have been displaced since the invasion began in February 2022. This figure encompasses both those internally displaced within Ukraine and refugees who have fled across borders.
What’s changing is the nature of this displacement. Initial waves were chaotic, with millions fleeing in the first weeks.
Now, displacement is more protracted, with many unable to return home due to ongoing fighting, destroyed infrastructure, or the continued occupation of their hometowns. The trend to watch is whether the front line remains static or shifts again. The occupied 18% has been a stubborn fact for years, but the history of this conflict shows that territorial control can change rapidly.
Watch this space.
