Moldova has about 2.4 million people, a spot between Ukraine and NATO and EU territory, and, according to The New York Times, a place on Vladimir Putin’s list. The paper reported Friday that Putin has ordered his intelligence services and military to work toward “destroying NATO and the EU from within” in 2026.
The report rests on officials from two countries who know of a secret meeting in December 2025. They told the Times that Moscow is working on at least two fronts: testing whether NATO will defend its members, and destabilising Moldova.
A test for NATO
US intelligence has assessed that Russia could try to test the alliance’s resolve as early as this fall, with a limited attack on a member state. The scenarios run from cyberattacks and sabotage to operations by unidentified armed groups or a limited incursion into a country on NATO’s eastern flank.
German Chief of Defense Gen. Carsten Breuer has warned that Russia is already running hybrid operations across NATO, especially in the east. Poland and the Baltic states are tightening security at dams, power plants, gas facilities and other critical infrastructure. They fear a false-flag attack using Ukrainian-made drones. A Baltic intelligence official told Reuters that such an operation might aim less at physical damage than at political chaos, forcing Washington and European capitals to argue over whether Russia was behind it and whether the alliance should respond.
Why Moldova
Western intelligence officials told the Times that conquering Ukraine is still Putin’s first priority and control of Moldova comes second. They say he is still believed to want southern Ukraine, and with it a land corridor linking Russia to Moldova.
Russia already has a foothold there. Moldova’s territory includes the Russian-backed separatist region of Transnistria, where Russian troops have been stationed for decades, just across the border from Ukraine and within reach of the capital, Chisinau.
An open invasion is not required. In March, a Russian strike on a Ukrainian hydroelectric plant caused an oil spill that polluted the Dniester River and cut water supplies in Moldova, including in its third-largest city. Russian drones later hit a high-voltage line in western Ukraine that supplies Moldova with a large share of its electricity.
The pressure is political as well. Moldova has been moving decisively toward the EU, and Moscow has repeatedly tried to use political divisions, disinformation and economic weak points to slow that shift.
