MOSCOW — The fire at Moscow’s main oil refinery on June 18 was visible for miles. Key equipment melted. Repairs are expected to take until the end of the year.
That single facility has been hit twice, even with significant air defenses around the capital. President Vladimir Putin called the damage to Russia’s refining sector “not critical.” He said the war will go on until Moscow’s goals are met.
He rejected proposals he claimed would benefit Ukraine. But the numbers tell a different story. Chris Weafer, chief executive of consultancy Macro-Advisory, estimates about one-third of Russia’s refining capacity is now offline.
That is not a temporary glitch. The damage is lasting and will be expensive to repair, Weafer said.
Since March, Ukraine has launched more than 50 reported attacks on oil refineries and other energy facilities inside Russia and in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian leaders say the strikes are meant to pressure Moscow to end the war. The attacks have done something else.
They have brought the conflict closer to daily life for many Russians. Putin’s long-standing narrative — that the war does not directly affect ordinary people — has been cut across. Fuel shortages are deepening across the country.
Putin dismissed the setbacks. He insists the attacks will not force Moscow into negotiations on terms set by its adversaries.
Ceasefire proposals remain off the table. The same day Putin spoke, Russia launched an 11-hour overnight barrage on Kyiv. The attack killed at least 21 people.
It was one of the deadliest on the Ukrainian capital since the full-scale invasion began. So two things are happening at once.
Russia keeps hitting Ukrainian cities. Ukraine keeps hitting Russian refineries. Neither side is blinking.
But the refinery strikes are starting to bite. One-third of capacity offline is not a small number for a country that is one of the world’s leading oil producers. The damage is not something that can be fixed with quick repairs.
The equipment destroyed at Moscow’s main refinery will take months to replace. Putin’s public dismissal of the attacks as “not critical” is a political statement.
It is meant to reassure. It is meant to project strength. But the fuel shortages are real.
They are growing. The disconnect between what the Kremlin says and what is happening on the ground is widening.
The war is no longer something that happens only in Ukraine. It is now affecting the daily lives of Russians. Fuel is harder to find.
Prices are likely to rise. Weafer’s estimate of one-third of refining capacity knocked offline is a concrete figure. It is not vague.
It is not a prediction. It is an assessment of what has already happened.
The attacks are not stopping. Ukrainian leaders have stated their goal plainly: pressure Moscow to end the war. The strikes are a tool to achieve that.
Putin has made his position equally clear. He will not negotiate on terms set by Ukraine or its allies.
The war continues until Russia’s goals are met. Neither side is giving ground. The refineries burn.
The fuel runs short. The missiles fly. And the war grinds on.
