Thirty-eight parties are competing for 120 Knesset seats, and only about 11 of them are expected to get in. The gatekeeper is a single figure: 3.25 percent of the national vote, which works out to four seats. Fall short by even a sliver and a party’s ballots count for nothing in the final tally.
That arithmetic hangs over Israel’s October 27 election, the first since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023. About 7.3 million people are eligible to vote, according to the Latin Times.
A race with no clear path to 61
Israel elects its parliament by nationwide proportional representation. Voters choose a party list, not a candidate, and seats follow vote share. The Council on Foreign Relations notes that the votes cast for lists under the threshold are redistributed under a formula set by the Bader-Ofer Law of 1973.
Polls put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party at roughly 22 seats, just ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud at around 20. Netanyahu’s bloc averages roughly 49 to 51 seats. The opposition is not close either. Governing takes 61.
In a contest that tight, a handful of small lists matter far more than their size suggests. The Council on Foreign Relations names two. Amcha Yisrael is led by retired general Ofer Winter. The Reservists-Economy joint list is run by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, and the CFR says it is mostly drawing votes from the Netanyahu bloc. A joint list, the think tank explains, is an alliance in which two or more parties share one slate of candidates, which is how several smaller outfits try to get over the line together.
Steven A. Cook, a CFR senior fellow, laid out the squeeze on the opposition side. “The opposition cannot get to sixty-one seats without either the Haredim or Ra’am,” he said, referring to the ultra-Orthodox parties and an Arab party. Netanyahu faces his own problem. He is significantly less popular than in earlier runs and would have to build a coalition with far-right parties.
What happens after the count
Once seats are assigned, the president consults the parties and hands a mandate to the lawmaker best placed to form a government. No single party has ever won 61 seats, so the mandate has always gone to someone assembling a coalition. If that person fails within twenty-eight days, the president can pick someone else or give the job to the Knesset. If nobody manages it, Israelis vote again.
Elliott Abrams, another CFR senior fellow, did not sound optimistic. “Negotiations will take weeks, and their failure, leading to another election, is quite plausible,” he said. Cook floated a way out: a rotation in which Eisenkot and Netanyahu trade places after an agreed time. He questioned what that would say about an opposition built to keep Netanyahu out of the prime minister’s office.
The outgoing Knesset is on track to be the first since 1988 to finish a full four-year term, a stretch that included multiple coalition crises. The Latin Times described Netanyahu as facing three domestic corruption cases, which he dismisses as politically driven, and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. Neither bloc is within reach of a majority. So a party that scrapes past 3.25 percent, or misses it, could shape which side is closest.
Sources
- What the October 27 Israeli Election Means for Netanyahu's Future — and Who Could Replace Him
- Israel’s Election: Understanding Who’s Who and What’s at Stake | Council on Foreign Relations
