Between October 5 and 11, twelve vessels were attacked around the Gulf, six of them on the Sunday alone. Then on Tuesday a tanker and a container ship were hit by unidentified projectiles, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported. Shipping men called it one of the most intense stretches since the war began.
The same day, Rear Admiral Ali Azmaei of the Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said Iranian forces would sink American warships that approached the Strait of Hormuz. His crews, he said, were “counting down” to a possible confrontation.
Why now
Charlie Brown, a maritime security expert with United Against Nuclear Iran, tied the timing to Washington. President Donald Trump has said the US will not launch new attacks on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. “Now they’re taking that as word, I guess. And testing it,” Brown told Iran International. Every attack that goes unanswered, he said, probably encourages the next. Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters separately that Tehran had changed the type and pace of its attacks, partly to influence the midterms and frustrate efforts to bring oil prices down.
Shahram Kholdi, a historian of Iran, saw something larger: an attempt at an “October surprise” to squeeze Trump before voters go to the polls. He thought Tehran had used the quieter weeks to protect what military capability it had left and rebuild stocks of weapons. He also warned of the risk. If Iran moved from merchant ships to American naval assets, it might be mistaking temporary restraint for unwillingness to hit back.
A fragile recovery
The attacks landed just as Gulf producers were getting oil out again. Flows from the Persian Gulf averaged about 15.5 million barrels a day in September, the highest since the war began, according to Kpler, helped by US protection measures, bigger tankers and costly workarounds. On October 11, only 2.9 million barrels passed through Hormuz, the lowest daily figure of the month. Daily flows swing widely, and the data alone cannot show how much of the drop the attacks caused.
Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy commander, said the numbers hid the danger. “We’re at sort of pre-war levels of oil, but in far fewer ships,” he said. Big tankers make risky passages under American protection, sometimes take hits, and transfer cargo and crews once past the worst water. “It’s not working. Iran is still striking,” he said. The Joint Maritime Information Center put US-facilitated transits at about 29 a day over a recent 72-hour period, against a historical average of roughly 138.
Brown said Iran does not have to stop every ship to shake confidence. Charter rates are so high that some owners will keep sailing: “There will always be some that take the risk because the profits are so big right now.” Vessels have also been attacked near Oman’s Sohar anchorage. Brown believes Russian and Chinese intelligence help, possibly satellite imagery and tracking that does not rely on ships’ transponders, is still reaching Iran daily.
Diplomacy and the blockade
Brent settled above $104 a barrel on Tuesday after three sessions of gains. Iranian officials said Washington had accepted some of Tehran’s conditions for de-escalation, but called its response insufficient. Trump told reporters the US would “make a decision on Iran very soon.” The American blockade continues, and Kpler recorded no Iranian crude or condensate loaded onto tankers at all in September.
Sharpe pointed to a second front. Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia have intensified alongside the shipping attacks. “There’s an Iranian and Houthi escalation going on here that’s not being matched,” he said. An attack that kills many people, or hits US military assets, could bring the direct American response Kholdi said Tehran may be underestimating.
