MAGDEBURG, September 10 — The Alternative für Deutschland has won the state election in Saxony-Anhalt with a projected 43.8 percent of the vote, according to the latest projections. It is the first time a party officially classified as right-wing extremist has taken a dominant first place in a Landtagswahl in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. The result is a political watershed, and its consequences run from the regional level to Berlin and on to Brussels.
The centre-right Christian Democratic Union finished a distant second with 17.2 percent, followed by the Social Democratic Party at 9.3 percent, the Greens at 8.9 percent and Die Linke at 8.6 percent. The populist left Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht entered the state parliament with 5.3 percent, adding a new and unpredictable actor to the parliamentary landscape.
Despite the scale of its victory, the AfD missed an absolute majority. With 39 projected seats, it falls short of the 42 needed to govern alone. That single fact prevents an immediate far-right takeover of the Landesregierung.
Indirect influence is another matter. If the AfD were to support or tolerate a minority government, it would still shape the state’s position in the Bundesrat, the upper house of Germany’s federal parliament, where the state government as a whole casts the vote and coalition partners must agree on a unified stance for each dossier.
The immediate institutional impact on EU decision-making is therefore limited for now. The political impact is profound.
The cordon sanitaire meets the arithmetic
Coalition formation will be extraordinarily difficult. The CDU insists on maintaining its Brandmauer against the AfD and continues to reject cooperation with Die Linke. But without the Linke’s votes, or at least its abstention, the CDU leader in Saxony-Anhalt cannot be re-elected Ministerpräsident, even if all other parties except the AfD were to vote for him in the state parliament.
Every liberal democratic governing option, whether a formal coalition or a minority arrangement, depends on the Linke’s support. That makes the party an unavoidable actor in any non-AfD constellation, despite the CDU’s long-standing refusal to cooperate with it.
The BSW adds another layer of complexity. Because it has shown openness to cooperating with the AfD in eastern Germany, its presence does not strengthen democratic coalition-building. Instead, it further fragments the parliamentary landscape and expands the AfD’s potential support base in the state parliament.
The paradoxical effect makes the formation of a liberal-democratic majority even harder and gives the AfD additional leverage in the coalition arithmetic.
A message to Berlin, and a signal for Europe
The result sends a clear message to Berlin. It reflects deep dissatisfaction with Chancellor Merz and the CDU-SPD federal coalition, whose approval ratings have steadily eroded. The AfD’s dominance in Saxony-Anhalt reinforces the perception that the federal government has lost control over key debates, including migration, economic insecurity and social cohesion, and continues to fail to offer a convincing alternative to far-right narratives.
The CDU faces renewed internal conflict over its strategic direction. The SPD confronts its near collapse in the East, even though its election result in Saxony-Anhalt is better than some had expected.
In any case, the election will intensify pressure on the federal coalition government to recalibrate its agenda and communication. The European implications are significant even without AfD representation in the Bundesrat. German state elections shape the political environment in which Berlin negotiates EU files.
A far-right victory of this magnitude strengthens radical-right actors across Europe, emboldens sovereigntist narratives and constrains Germany’s room for compromise on climate, migration and budgetary issues in Brussels. The vote is a continental warning signal, especially given the important upcoming elections in key EU states in 2027, including in France, Poland, Spain and Italy.
What happens next is constitutionally clear. The new Landtag must convene and attempt to form a government. The path to a stable majority remains highly uncertain.
