DUBAI, July 13 — The 20% toll on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, announced March 18, 2025, directly confronts the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian military branch that has long threatened to close the waterway. For communities across Asia that depend on the strait for energy imports and trade, the standoff carries immediate consequences. The IRGC was established in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution and today fields an estimated 190,000 personnel.
It controls Iran’s missile and naval forces, including the IRGC Navy, which operates small fast-attack craft, anti-ship missiles, and mines specifically designed for operations in the narrow Strait of Hormuz. Its naval base at Bandar Abbas overlooks the strait, giving the force a direct vantage point over the world’s most important oil chokepoint.
The IRGC has deployed the Noor anti-ship missile, with a range of 120 km, and the Qader missile, which can strike targets up to 300 km away. These weapons put virtually any vessel transiting the strait within reach. In 2019, the IRGC seized the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero in July, demonstrating its willingness to act on its threats.
The following year, it conducted drills simulating attacks on U.S. aircraft carriers.
Threats and Red Lines
The IRGC has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly, including in 2018 and 2019. It has not done so, due largely to the presence of the U.S. Navy. The new toll, however, changes the calculation.
Enforcement of the toll by its backers would mean challenging the IRGC’s ability to threaten shipping, and the IRGC has made clear it views any such challenge as a provocation. The United States designated the IRGC a Foreign Terrorist Organization in April 2019.
Its budget is estimated at $10 billion annually, funded through the Iranian government and control of smuggling networks. The IRGC’s Quds Force, which operates abroad, was led by Qasem Soleimani until his death in a U.S. drone strike in January 2020.
What It Means for the Region
For families across Asia, the toll and the IRGC’s response are not abstract geopolitical maneuvers. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world’s oil. Any disruption — whether through IRGC mines, fast-attack craft, or missile fire — would send energy prices climbing in the Philippines, Indonesia, India, and beyond.
The toll itself adds costs to every barrel that passes through, costs that ripple through supply chains to the goods people buy. The coming weeks will test whether the toll’s enforcers can maintain freedom of navigation against a force that has spent decades preparing to deny it.
The IRGC has the weapons, the base at Bandar Abbas, and the stated willingness to act. Whether it will risk a confrontation that could close the strait — and upend the energy security of millions across Asia — remains the open question.
