KYIV, July 11 — The shift is becoming unmistakable: Ukraine has turned the targeting of Russian oil refineries into a systematic campaign, and the data is starting to show real economic consequences for Moscow. Since early 2024, a series of drone and missile strikes have hit key Russian refining assets. The Tuapse refinery in Krasnodar Krai, which processes 240,000 barrels per day, was struck in January 2024.
The Ryazan refinery, a 340,000 bpd facility, was hit in March 2024. And the Nizhny Novgorod refinery, the largest of the three at 410,000 bpd, was also attacked in March 2024.
The cumulative effect is significant. Satellite imagery analysis by the Kyiv School of Economics estimates these strikes have temporarily reduced Russia’s refining capacity by 15%. That is a substantial chunk of a sector that underpins both the Russian military’s fuel supply and the country’s export earnings.
The Russian government responded by imposing a six-month ban on gasoline exports, running from March to August 2024, in an effort to stabilize domestic prices. That move signals the disruption was severe enough to threaten the home market.
The Economic Ripple Effect
What’s changing is the scale of the economic impact. The Russian budget relies on oil and gas for about 30% of its income. In 2024, Russian oil export revenues fell by 12% year-on-year.
That decline is partly due to these strikes and partly due to Western price caps that have been squeezing Moscow’s revenue stream. The new long-range command that Ukraine has established will systematize these attacks, using intelligence to prioritize refineries that supply the Russian military.
This is no longer a series of opportunistic strikes; it is becoming a coordinated strategy. The trend underneath is clear: Ukraine is targeting the economic engine of Russia’s war effort, not just the battlefield. By hitting refineries, Kyiv aims to reduce both the fuel available for Russian troops and the revenue Moscow uses to fund its operations.
What to Watch Next
Watch this space for the next phase. The systematization of these strikes means Ukraine can now allocate resources more efficiently, hitting the most strategically important targets first. The six-month gasoline export ban is set to expire in August 2024, and how the Russian market reacts will be a key indicator of whether the refining sector has recovered.
The economic data from 2024 already shows a 12% drop in oil export revenues. If the strikes continue to degrade Russia’s refining capacity, that number could worsen.
For a government that depends on oil and gas for roughly a third of its budget, the pressure is mounting. The shift is real, and it is accelerating.
