Sweden deposited its instrument of accession on 7 March 2024 and became NATO’s 32nd member. Finland had gone first, on 4 April 2023, as the 31st. Neither country had belonged to a military alliance for generations; Sweden had stayed non-aligned for over 200 years.
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine ended that. According to NATO, accession talks with both countries wrapped up on July 4, 2022, and the Accession Protocols were signed the next day, making them official invitees. The delay between signing and joining was ratification, not a change of heart.
What the map looks like now
Joel Hickman of the Center for European Policy Analysis argued in June 2022 that the geography does the work. Finland brings an 830-mile border with Russia. His estimate was that Moscow would have to put about 100,000 regular troops against the two newcomers’ combined 47,000 active personnel and projected wartime strength of over 1 million.
Sweden’s prize is Gotland. U.S. General Christopher Cavoli called the Baltic island an “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” with three brigades and advanced air defenses 200 miles from the Russian Baltic fleet headquarters in Kaliningrad. Sweden also operates the Patriot system, and Finland committed $10 billion to buy 64 F-35 aircraft.
Follow the numbers on the Baltic flank. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia field 40,000 active personnel between them; Finland and Sweden would add about 47,000.
The money
Hickman put European defense spending at $1.2 trillion in 2021, up 24.9% since 2014, with another $130 billion pledged in 2022. The catch is that these are his figures from the month before the Madrid summit, not a current audit of who is paying what.
His verdict on the politics was blunt. “Putin’s decision to invade a sovereign country in mainland Europe wrecked diplomatic relations” with countries that had spent decades keeping their distance, he wrote.
Sources
- NATO member countries
- Why Finland and Sweden's Accession Is a Game-Changer for NATO (CEPA, Joel Hickman)
