Three U.S. carrier strike groups and two amphibious ready groups could be sitting near Iran by the end of November. That is the arithmetic Gulf News laid out on Friday, after Washington sent the USS Theodore Roosevelt and the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group toward the Middle East.
Tehran noticed. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it stands “with its finger on the trigger” and would respond “decisively, immediately, painfully and more lethally than Operation True Promise II” to any U.S. or regional threat, aggression or miscalculation, according to Mehr News. The Guard also claimed to hold comprehensive intelligence on American and Israeli assets and positions.
True Promise II is a useful yardstick. It was Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel in October 2024, when Tehran fired around 200 missiles. The Guard is now saying the next round would be bigger.
A tanker hit in the strait
The warning landed on the same day as a fresh incident at sea. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that a tanker heading out through the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile, citing the ship’s captain. The hit caused a small fire and a power outage. The fire was put out, the vessel kept moving, and there were no reported casualties or environmental damage.
Authorities were investigating. UKMTO told ships to transit with caution and report anything suspicious.
Oil and a stalemate
Markets were already jumpy. Both main crude contracts edged up earlier in the day, with Washington and Tehran deadlocked on ending the crisis and unable to reopen the strait. Later on Friday, U.S. oil dropped sharply as G7 leaders held urgent talks on fuel prices. West Texas Intermediate fell 4.0 per cent to $89.15 a barrel, while Brent was down 2.6 per cent at $99.63 after several days above $100.
Elsewhere in the region, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Ground Forces member was killed by a roadside bomb in Sistan and Baluchestan province, the force’s Southeastern Quds Command said. The Guard blamed “terrorists” and said operations against armed groups there would continue.
Washington also granted sanctions exemptions for Iranian airlines, excluding Mahan Air, to fly 40 flights daily to and from the Iraqi city of Najaf, Iraq’s prime minister’s office said.
