Since Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Turkey has occupied a singular position among NATO allies, supplying Kyiv with armed drones while retaining open channels to Moscow. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has led Turkey since August 28, 2014, and served as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014, has leveraged more than two decades in power to remain a trusted interlocutor for both President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Vladimir Putin. Erdoğan was born in Istanbul on February 26, 1954.
Balancing Act in the Black Sea
Turkey’s geographic location provides unique leverage. The country controls the Turkish Straits—the Bosporus and the Dardanelles—the only maritime chokepoint between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Shortly after hostilities began, Ankara invoked the Montreux Convention, signed in 1936, to restrict the passage of warships during wartime.
That move effectively confined Russian naval reinforcements to the Black Sea while also limiting NATO naval access, a delicate balancing act that has drawn scrutiny from both sides. In July 2022, Erdoğan helped broker the Black Sea Grain Initiative alongside the United Nations.
The agreement established a safe corridor for exporting grain from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which had been blocked by Russian naval forces since the invasion began. Ukraine had been one of the world’s top grain suppliers, and the shutdown caused an acute rise in global food prices, threatening famine in lower‑income countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The grain deal allowed countless shipments to leave Ukraine, carrying grain and other food products to dozens of countries, and eased price pressures during a critical phase of the war.
It was a rare diplomatic breakthrough in a conflict otherwise defined by stalemate. The agreement was signed in Istanbul and ran for a limited period, overseen by a joint coordination and inspection center hosted in Turkey, with the United Nations serving as secretary.
It was extended multiple times, though Russia briefly suspended its participation in November 2022 before rejoining after mediation. By the summer of 2023, Russia repeatedly threatened to withdraw unless its demands were met. No new agreement was reached, and the extended deal expired in July 2023.
Its collapse means the risk of food price volatility and hunger in vulnerable regions remains high, demonstrating how a regional war can reverberate through global supply chains. Erdoğan has also mediated prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia and hosted peace talks between the warring parties.
His relationship with both Zelenskyy and Putin has been crucial for maintaining dialogue at moments when direct communication collapsed. At the same time, Turkey has provided Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 drones, which became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance in the early phases of the war. That support for Kyiv has not come at the cost of a complete break with Russia: Ankara has maintained economic ties with Moscow, including energy imports and trade, even as Western allies imposed sweeping sanctions.
Domestic Pressures and Strategic Autonomy
Erdoğan faces significant domestic challenges alongside his foreign policy juggling act. Turkey has grappled with economic crises, including high inflation and currency depreciation that have eroded household purchasing power. In 2023, Erdoğan faced elections that went to a runoff, which he ultimately won.
The political contest tested his popularity after two decades in power, though he emerged with another mandate. His government has consistently called for a ceasefire and a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
That position aligns with Turkey’s broader foreign policy approach of maintaining strategic autonomy, balancing its NATO commitments with pragmatic engagement with Moscow. At stake for Erdoğan is not only Turkey’s role as a regional power broker but also its security interests in the Black Sea. Ankara remains concerned about the militarization of the region and the potential for the conflict to spill over into its maritime backyard.
What to Watch Next
As the war enters its fifth year, Erdoğan’s ability to sustain his mediating role will depend on whether both Kyiv and Moscow continue to view Ankara as a credible interlocutor. The Montreux Convention restrictions remain in place, and the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative—which has faced periodic suspensions—hangs in the balance.
In the corridors of Ankara, the calculation remains the same: Turkey cannot afford to choose fully between East and West, and Erdoğan has built his foreign policy legacy on that tightrope.
