Out on the Strait of Hormuz, the ships have thinned to a trickle. Trump says 24 vessels slipped through on Wednesday. Before the war, the figure was roughly 130 a day.
That gap is one measure of where the U.S.-Israel war on Iran stands at six months. Iran has used its own strikes in the waterway as leverage, and few tankers carrying oil or liquefied natural gas are willing to test it. The president still calls the strait open.
He also says he is in no rush to end the fight. “Not in a hurry” was his phrase this week when asked about getting Iran back to the table, and on Thursday he told reporters the other side was falling apart. “They’re not paying their troops. They’re in deep trouble. They have very little capacity.”
Talks are not on his list. “We don’t want to speak to them,” he said. “We’re not looking to meet or anything.”
Mediators keep moving
Qatar and Pakistan are still shuttling between the two sides. Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, was in Tehran on Thursday to discuss a plan from Iran and Oman to boost traffic through the strait.
In Washington, Trump has shown little interest in going back to the preliminary deal from June. It would have reopened the strait and opened talks on Iran’s nuclear program. It collapsed within weeks, after Iran began attacking ships.
Trump’s answer is the blockade. He says the U.S. Navy is keeping Iranian oil off the market while only a trickle of tankers from other Gulf nations gets through. “We have control and we have the blockade,” he said. “Iran is not getting anything. Nothing is going through.”
Sanctions next
The administration said this week it would lean on economic pressure instead of military action, with threats aimed at anyone who keeps trading with Tehran. Officials are also weighing lower munitions stockpiles after months of fighting, which has prompted concern about U.S. readiness in other parts of the world.
Aarathi Krishnan, a geopolitical risk analyst at RAKSHA Intelligence Future, says the strikes and decades of sanctions have clearly battered Iran. She doubts more squeeze will deliver the political result Trump wants. Iran has had years to adapt, she said, through discounted oil sales and opaque shipping and financial networks. “This administration has completely underestimated the Iranian resolve,” Krishnan said.
Richard Goldberg, a senior Iran adviser at the National Security Council in Trump’s first term, sees it differently. In his view Iran enters “uncharted waters” if the sanctions drive is carried through.
What the war has cost
The United States has spent more than $37.5 billion so far, and the war has dented Trump’s standing before the November elections. Iranian officials say their country has lost $270 billion. Before the war, Iran’s economy was already caught in surging inflation, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Trump marked the anniversary week in Houston, where he planned to honor the Artemis II crew for their 10-day trip around the moon.
Sources
- Trump says he’s ‘not in a hurry’ to end Iran war
- As Iran war hits six-month mark, Trump says he’s ‘not in a hurry’
