ADDIS ABABA, September 25 — Fighting between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front has intensified across northern Ethiopia, threatening to reignite a conflict that ended with a peace agreement less than four years ago. The record shows the violence is no longer confined to a single front. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, clashes have spread across the Tigray-Amhara border, into Afar, and toward western Tigray.
Forces involved include the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Tigraya Defense Forces on one side, and Ethiopia’s federal government alongside the Amhara Fano National Movement on the other.
Drone strikes and a widening map
On the timeline, the most concentrated reported violence came on 22 September 2026, when ACLED sources recorded between 15 and 17 drone strikes in Alamata, in Southern Tigray zone. Schools, a hospital, and other locations were among the reported targets. Further drone strikes were reported in Northwestern Tigray zone on 23 and 24 September.
Casualty numbers remain unclear. Civilians and combatants have reportedly been killed, according to the filing, but the disruption of telecommunications services operated by Etio-Telecom across Tigray — except western Tigray — has made information difficult to verify.
Fighting involving federal forces, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the TDF has spread across multiple locations in North Wello and Wag Hamera zones in Amhara. Flights at Lalibela airport were suspended on the afternoon of 24 September. A further front has opened around the Tekeze River in Tslimoy and May Gaba, in the disputed western Tigray area.
ACLED’s assessment
Dr Jalale Gettachew Birru, East Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED, described the situation as a conflict expanding in several directions at once, with several military fronts active simultaneously, civilian areas exposed to airstrikes, communications disrupted, and political divisions within Tigray becoming increasingly visible. Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED’s CEO, cautioned against concluding that Ethiopia is at war again.
She noted that during the previous Tigray war the government declared a state of emergency the day after TPLF forces attacked several bases in the north, and that the current situation has not reached that point. She expressed concern over alliances with Amhara and Oromo factions, the fluidity of the situation, and the absence of clear brakes to prevent further escalation.
Senior Tigrayan military figures and TPLF members, including former interim regional president Tadesse Werede and the head of intelligence for the TDF, have reportedly been detained after being accused of sharing information with the federal government.
Four years after the peace deal
The previous Tigray war began in November 2020 and lasted until a November 2022 peace agreement. It involved widespread atrocities and a humanitarian crisis. The renewed fighting has drawn international attention.
CNN reported that former enemies are now fighting together. DW examined how the renewed fighting could spread in the Horn of Africa.
Reuters noted internal discord among Tigray’s leaders, and NPR highlighted fears of a return to war. What to watch next is whether the fighting consolidates into a single organised campaign or remains a set of separate fronts, and whether the political divisions inside Tigray that ACLED has flagged harden further. The absence of clear brakes, as Raleigh put it, is the open question.
