Four years into Russia’s invasion, the bill for putting Ukraine back together stands at almost $588 billion over the next decade. That is the estimate in the fifth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment, released on February 23, 2026 by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission and the United Nations. It is nearly three times the country’s estimated nominal GDP for 2025.
Direct damage alone has passed $195 billion, up from $176 billion in the assessment published a year earlier. Housing, transport and energy took the worst of it. By December 31, 2025, 14 percent of housing had been damaged or destroyed, affecting over three million households. Energy assets damaged or destroyed rose by about 21 percent over the previous assessment, and transport needs grew around 24 percent after heavier attacks on rail and ports in 2025.
Transport is the biggest line in the long-term needs, at over $96 billion, followed by energy at nearly $91 billion and housing at almost $90 billion. The authors also counted almost $28 billion for clearing explosives and debris. Against that, at least $20 billion of needs have already been met through urgent repairs since February 2022, and the government is moving on more than $15 billion in 2026 projects.
A budget paid for by others
The damage is one half of the picture. The other is who keeps the state running. Daniil Monin, an independent economic expert writing for the Kennan Institute, laid out the numbers behind Ukraine’s 2024 budget. Revenues were set at UAH 1.78 trillion ($43.7 billion). Expenditures were set at UAH 3.35 trillion ($82.3 billion), almost double, with international loans and grants expected to cover the difference. Defense and homeland security took 22 percent of GDP, about $40 billion.
The economy fell by 29 percent in 2022, Monin wrote, and state debt climbed from 49 percent of GDP before the invasion to 78 percent. At the time of his writing in December 2023, he noted that no one knew where $27 billion, about two-thirds of the projected deficit, would come from. His blunt view was that without aid, Ukraine could not withstand the Russian military.
The money did arrive, though in pieces. The Centre for Economic Strategy reported that since the full-scale invasion, all of the budget’s domestic revenues have gone to defense, roughly half of spending, while civilian expenditures are paid for with foreign financial aid. In 2024, Ukraine needed $38 billion of external financing, according to the centre’s war economy tracker.
December 2024 gives a snapshot of how the tranches stacked up. The Council of the European Union approved €4 billion in loans and grants under the Ukraine Facility, which had by then allocated €12.1 billion to the state budget. On December 24 the budget received $1 billion under a World Bank policy loan, plus a $1 billion grant from the United States through the same program. The IMF paid its seventh tranche, about $1.1 billion, under its four-year Extended Fund Facility.
The G7 also agreed on a $50 billion loan backed by interest profits from Russian assets, to fund Ukraine in 2025. Of that, $40 billion was already confirmed from the US, the EU, Japan and the UK.
Sources
- Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment Released | World Bank
- Ukraine's Budget for 2024 | Wilson Center (Kennan Institute), by Daniil Monin, independent economic expert (analysis, author's opinions)
- Recap of International Aid to Ukraine in December 2024 | Centre for Economic Strategy
