Start with the number the Western capitals like to quote, then ask what it buys. Russia is the most heavily sanctioned country on earth, according to the tracking database Castellum.AI, and more than 5,000 targeted sanctions sit on its politicians, oligarchs, big companies, banks and defense industry. DW reported in April 2024 that this is more than Iran, Venezuela, Myanmar and Cuba face put together.
The catch is what those sanctions have done. The Russian economy grew 3.6% in the year before that report, and the International Monetary Fund projected 3.2% for 2024, pointing to high state spending tied to the war and strong oil revenue.
Where the leaks are
The financial measures are the hardest-hitting. Russian banks were shut out of SWIFT, and the central bank cannot touch its reserves held in G7 countries. But only sanctions from the UN Security Council bind every country, and India, Brazil and China have not joined the Western approach. Distances do the rest: Kazakhstan’s frontier with Russia runs for more than 7,500 kilometers, and policing it is nearly out of the question. Armenia’s imports of German cars and parts rose by almost 1000% in a year, DW noted.
Oil is the clearest case. The G7 cap on Russian crude, set at $60 a barrel since December 2022, works only through Western shipping and insurance. Moscow’s answer was a shadow fleet of hundreds of aging tankers, bought through third parties and run on opaque insurance. More than 700 of them have been sanctioned, DW reported in May 2025, though the US has stopped adding names.
The squeeze tightens
By then the arithmetic was shifting. Brent crude was trading near $65 a barrel, while Russian barrels fetched $55 to $59 across April and May, a hair under the cap. Falling prices were doing part of the work. Yuliia Pavytska, a sanctions specialist at the Kyiv School of Economics, said “the cumulative imbalances caused by sanctions and the war, coupled with falling oil prices, are now reaching a critical point.”
The EU and Britain pushed to lower the cap, with reports suggesting $50. Any change would need unanimity in the EU. Washington was not convinced, a European official told Reuters. A later EU package went further and set a dynamic cap 15% below the average market price, which cut the ceiling from $60 to $47.6. It also banned 22 more Russian banks, more than a hundred shadow-fleet vessels and imports of refined products made from Russian crude in third countries.
Enforcement is the weak link, said analyst Vaibhav Raghunandan. The price matters less than the policing, he argued, and the checks are “very lax.” More Russian oil now moves on G7 insurance, which gives the cap more bite, as he put it.
Christian von Soest, a sanctions researcher in Germany, offered the reason Western governments persist despite the leaks: with no sanctions, it would almost amount to tacit support for the invasion.
Sources
- EU, UK push for lowering Russia oil price cap (DW)
- Why Iran and Russia can dodge Western sanctions (DW)
- New EU sanctions on Russia 'unprecedented' (DW)
