Russian forces fired at least 1,858 missiles at Ukraine between the start of 2026 and the morning of Aug. 27, according to a tally published by the Kyiv Independent in cooperation with the Ukrainian outlet Militarnyi.
The total hides a change in what is being fired. February brought the peak, 296 missiles, many of them cruise missiles that Ukrainian air defenses intercepted in large numbers. After a brief lull in March and April, Moscow turned to ballistic and quasi-ballistic weapons, which are harder to stop, at a time when Ukraine is short of Patriot interceptors.
The monthly count
At least 235 missiles were used in May and 227 in June. July jumped to 474. The first 27 days of August brought 195.
Iskander-M, RM-48U and KN-23 missiles made up at least 794 of the total, or 43%. Their use climbed from 39 in March and 61 in April to 107 in May, 134 in June and 174 in July. RM-48U launches alone went from 15 a month in the first half of the year to 46 in the first 20 days of July.
Cruise missiles number 866, with 529 of them Kh-101s. Kalibr use stayed low at 126 launches. Zircon launches rose from three in May to 15 in June and 24 in July, and about two-thirds of the 80 fired this year came in summer. Russia launched 25 Onyx missiles in July after none in the first six months, and fired 72 Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles in July during its campaign against Ukrainian ports and vessels in the Black Sea.
Can it keep going?
Production is holding up. Russia produced 65 Iskander-M missiles in July against a plan of 60, and 87 Kh-101s against a target of 72. Its annual plan of 60 Onyx missiles was already met by Aug. 3.
Stockpiles tell a mixed story. Kh-101 reserves have fallen from 150 to no more than 100, and Zircon stocks appear to have dropped from up to 230 in spring to around 120. Kalibr remains comfortable at more than 450. Serial production of the Kinzhal and the Kh-32 has been suspended.
The authors conclude that Russia is unlikely to simply run out of missiles. To raise the tempo further, though, it would have to pause strikes to build reserves, draw down stocks, or lean on less accurate weapons. They warn that none of this guarantees a quieter winter, since Russia can still build up an arsenal for a renewed campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
A separate memo from the French institute Ifri argues that Europe faces the same threat. The weapons hitting Ukraine would be aimed at European targets in a war between Russia and NATO, it says, and it calls for missile defense backed by a conventional counterstrike capability.
Sources
- Confronting Russia’s High-Velocity Arsenal: European Challenges and Solutions
- How many more missiles does Russia have — and can it keep firing them?
