MOSCOW, July 3 — President Vladimir Putin is publicly brushing off the mounting fuel crisis inside Russia, insisting the war in Ukraine will grind on. His stance comes as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have knocked out an estimated one-third of Russia’s refining capacity, according to Chris Weafer, CEO of the consultancy Macro-Advisory. Putin has dismissed the damage to Russia’s energy infrastructure as “not critical.” He has rejected ceasefire proposals and stated the conflict will continue until his military objectives are met.
The attacks have already shattered his long-running narrative that the war doesn’t touch ordinary Russians. For millions, fuel shortages are now a daily reality.
More than 50 reported Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and other energy facilities inside Russia and occupied Crimea since March have inflicted lasting damage. Weafer’s estimate that a third of refining capacity is offline suggests the repair bill will be steep and the timeline long. Putin appears to bet his government can weather the crisis without losing public support for the war he launched over four years ago.
Analysts note that Russian advances on the battlefield have been stymied in recent months. Putin, however, frames the energy attacks as a Ukrainian distraction from its own losses.
The Russian military responded overnight into Thursday with an 11-hour barrage on the Ukrainian capital. At least 21 people were killed in what is described as one of the deadliest attacks on Kyiv since the full-scale invasion began. Putin’s calculation seems to be that the fuel shortages are a political inconvenience, not a strategic threat to his hold on power.
Cutting off a third of refining capacity in a country that is one of the world’s leading oil producers is not a minor glitch. The lasting damage will be costly to fix, and the question is whether the Kremlin can maintain the fiction of normalcy as queues at gas stations grow.
