A top Moscow refinery has been hit twice, even though the capital sits under heavy air defenses. The second strike, on June 18, set it ablaze and damaged key equipment that reportedly will not be repaired before the end of the year.
President Vladimir Putin calls the fuel shortages gripping Russia “not critical.” He has waved off ceasefire proposals and says the war will go on until his goals are met.
The numbers tell a different story. Chris Weafer, CEO of the consultancy Macro-Advisory, estimates that one-third of Russia’s refining capacity has been cut off. Ukraine has launched more than 50 reported attacks since March on refineries and other energy sites in Russia and occupied Crimea, and Ukrainian leaders say the campaign is meant to pressure Moscow into ending the war. The damage is lasting and will cost a lot to fix.
Rationing and queues
Government statistics put gasoline output down by roughly 17%, to 850,000 barrels a day. Many regions have introduced rationing. Drivers wait in line for hours to fill up.
To ease the deficit, the government has allowed lower quality gasoline with higher sulfur content to be produced through the end of the year. Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014, has fared worst, with gasoline sales to individuals halted from time to time.
For millions of Russians, the war is no longer something that happens elsewhere. That undercuts Putin’s long-running line that the conflict leaves ordinary lives untouched.
What Putin said
Putin chaired a meeting of government officials on the shortages last weekend. On television he conceded that Russia was going through a “difficult period,” promised faster repairs and said gasoline imports might be considered to cover what he called “temporary” shortages. He added that the arms industry would build more air defense systems.
He described the strikes as an attempt to split Russian society, stop Moscow’s offensive and drag the Kremlin into talks on “terms advantageous to our adversary.” His answer: “We will not give them that chance.”
Ukraine’s long-range strikes, Putin said, “have absolutely no effect on the situation at the front.” Western military analysts disagree. They say midrange strikes on the Russian army have disrupted its logistics and slowed its advance, leaving the front in a stalemate.
On Friday Putin visited the military headquarters running the Ukraine campaign to hear a report on the capture of Kostyantynivka after weeks of street fighting. Dressed in fatigues, he called the city, a large transport and industrial hub, of “major strategic importance” and a step toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. There was no immediate comment from Ukrainian officials. Earlier that day, Ukraine’s General Staff said it had repelled 24 Russian assaults near Kostyantynivka and other settlements.
Putin also warned that “the more strikes Kyiv launches on our civilian facilities … the bigger security zone we will need to create” in Ukraine.
Ceasefire offers rejected
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered to meet, Putin told him to come to Moscow, which Kyiv sees as a non-starter. He has turned down a truce proposed by Kyiv and its Western allies, arguing it would only let Ukrainian troops rest and regroup. Any ceasefire, he says, would require Ukraine to pull out of the part of Donetsk it still holds, and a final deal must bar Ukraine from joining NATO, shrink its military and protect Russian language and culture.
Putin also rejected a proposal to halt deep strikes on each other’s territory. Russia’s own deep attacks are, he said, “much more powerful, sensitive and, frankly speaking, destructive.”
Russia’s answer on the ground came overnight into Thursday: an 11-hour barrage on Kyiv that killed at least 30 people, one of the deadliest attacks on the city since the full-scale invasion began. Residential areas were hit again, although Moscow says it targets military sites. The vast majority of Ukrainian strikes inside Russia have hit oil facilities, weapons factories and other military targets. A United Nations tally counts more than 16,000 Ukrainian civilians dead in the war.
