In Saratov, journalists watched district administration cars and Russian Post vans get first call at a Rosneft fuel station while ordinary drivers waited. It is a small scene, but it shows what Ukrainian drone strikes have done to Russia’s fuel supply.
Estimates of the damage differ. Chris Weafer, CEO of the consultancy Macro-Advisory, puts the share of Russian refining capacity cut off at one-third. By the Financial Times’ count at the end of July, 45% of capacity was nominally offline, though a little over 30% was actually sitting idle. Ukraine’s General Staff goes higher, saying 42.7% of projected capacity was disabled as of early July.
What the strikes have hit
The General Staff says eight Russian refineries were attacked in the past month alone, and that more than 60 storage reservoirs were destroyed or critically damaged. Of those tanks, 58% held petroleum products and 42% crude. It puts the industry’s losses since August 2025 at $13.5 billion.
More than 50 strikes on refineries and other energy sites inside Russia and occupied Crimea have been reported since March. Putin has described the situation as merely “certain inconveniences” and denied any “critical consequences.” Ukrainian military planners and drone operators told the Financial Times that Kyiv now aims at the parts that are hardest and costliest to replace: primary refining units, catalyst units and compressors.
S&P Global counted at least 26 Russian refineries knocked out by drones between January and July. Seven had not resumed work. Four more were hit in August.
Queues, caps and freight
Reuters estimates that Russia’s fuel production fell 25% year-on-year in June and runs about 20% below domestic demand. Only the Omsk refinery, with annual capacity of 22 million metric tons, has reportedly avoided recent strikes among the country’s largest plants.
Local fuel crises have appeared in more than 50 regions. Some stations give priority to government officials, state employees and emergency services. In the Irkutsk region, Governor Igor Kobzev declared a state of “high alert” over short fuel deliveries, and police and National Guard units were sent to stations to manage queues and enforce a ban on filling external canisters.
Trucking has suffered too. Kommersant reported that logistics firms struggle to find diesel, especially on routes toward China. Daily distances have dropped from 600-700 kilometers to about 500, and freight rates have gone up as a result.
Repairs fall behind
The industry leans on foreign components that sanctions make hard to bring in. Minor damage, like that at Omsk or Lukoil’s Permnefteorgsintez, can be fixed within weeks. Where primary refining or catalyst units were destroyed, repairs take months. Orsknefteorgsintez in the Orenburg region halted refining entirely after a strike damaged critical, apparently imported, equipment, and the worst-case repair time there is up to six months. Some parts now come through China.
Kpler expects Russian refineries to process 4 million barrels of oil per day in August, down 5% from July. The normal level is 5.3-5.5 million barrels per day.
The fuel gap is being filled partly with imports. Russia has shipped in at least 60,000 metric tons of gasoline from India by sea, with two more tankers on the way, and has agreed to take 50,000 tons from Kazakhstan for July and August. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Belarus supplies 100,000 to 150,000 metric tons a month.
Ukraine is now talking with the European Commission about discouraging third countries from selling fuel to Russia. Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the presidential sanctions commissioner, said a “sanction-related response” is under discussion as part of early work on the EU’s 22nd sanctions package.
The strikes have not stopped. On July 4, drones set off several fires at the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, which has annual capacity of 12.5 million tons, and debris hit the port of Vysotsk, home to a Lukoil terminal. Belgorod lost power and water after strikes on the Luch thermal power plant and a substation at the Michurinskaya plant. A strike on Lukoil’s Kstovo refinery, Russia’s second-largest gasoline producer, had been confirmed shortly before.
Sources
- Ukrainian Defense Forces Disable 43% of Russia’s Total Oil Refining Capacity
- Running on empty: Russia’s fuel shortage is here to stay and could get even worse
