MOSCOW — The fuel pump is where the war in Ukraine now hits home for millions of Russians. And the Kremlin is betting they will keep filling their tanks and quieting their doubts. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes since March have knocked out an estimated one-third of Russia’s refining capacity, according to Chris Weafer, CEO of the consultancy Macro-Advisory.
That is a staggering figure for a nation that ranks among the world’s top oil producers. More than 50 reported strikes on refineries and other energy sites inside Russia and occupied Crimea have left lasting damage.
The repair bill will be steep. The timeline long. President Vladimir Putin has publicly dismissed the damage as “not critical.” He has rejected ceasefire proposals.
He insists the conflict will continue until his military objectives are met. His calculation appears to be that fuel shortages are a political inconvenience, not a strategic threat to his hold on power.
But the attacks have already shattered his long-running narrative that the war doesn’t touch ordinary Russians. For millions, fuel shortages are now a daily reality. That is a new and unwelcome fact of life in a country where the government has worked hard to insulate civilians from the costs of the invasion.
Putin frames the energy attacks as a Ukrainian distraction from its own losses on the battlefield. Analysts note that Russian advances have been stymied in recent months. The Russian military responded overnight into Thursday with an 11-hour barrage on the Ukrainian capital.
At least 21 people were killed in what is described as one of the deadliest attacks on Kyiv since the full-scale invasion began. Weafer’s estimate that a third of refining capacity is offline suggests the problem is not minor.
Cutting off that much capacity in a leading oil producer is not a glitch. It is a systemic blow. The question is whether the Kremlin can weather the crisis without losing public support for a war now in its fourth year.
Putin appears to believe the answer is yes. He is betting that Russians will endure the inconvenience.
That they will accept higher prices and longer lines at the pump. That the war effort matters more than their daily commute. The evidence so far is mixed.
There have been no mass protests. No visible political unrest. But the silence is not necessarily support.
It may be exhaustion. Or fear.
Or simply the slow grind of a war that has already consumed so much. The strikes on refineries are not random. They are targeted.
They aim to disrupt the logistics that fuel Russia’s military machine. And they are working.
The damage is real. The recovery will take time and money — both of which are in shorter supply than the Kremlin likes to admit. For now, Putin is sticking to his line.
No retreat. No ceasefire. No surrender.
The war grinds on. The fuel shortages grind on.
And ordinary Russians are left to wonder how much longer they can keep going. Weafer’s assessment is blunt: the repair bill will be steep. The timeline long.
That is not a prediction of collapse. It is a statement of fact.
A third of refining capacity is offline. That is not a minor glitch. It is a major wound.
And the Kremlin is betting it will heal before the public loses patience.
