Oil fell the moment the headline landed. Brent crude futures for July slipped 0.4 percent to $109.96 a barrel on Friday after Iran’s state news agency IRNA said Tehran had passed a fresh negotiating proposal to Pakistani mediators. The day before, prices had touched $126, the highest since March 2022.
IRNA gave no detail about what the proposal contains. That is the detail that matters, and as ever it is the one missing. Neither Washington nor Islamabad had confirmed receipt, and it was unclear whether the text had been forwarded to the Americans at all. According to reporting carried by the Philippine outlet Tribune, the paper was handed over on Thursday evening.
A ceasefire with little behind it
The war began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28. Iran answered by hitting US bases and infrastructure in Gulf states, Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel, and Israel struck Lebanon in return. A ceasefire brokered by Pakistan has held since April 8, but only one round of direct talks has been held, and it produced nothing.
Meanwhile the physical standoff continues. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies, Reuters reported, while the US Navy keeps Iranian crude from leaving port. Tribune reported that the Trump administration’s envoy has also proposed changes to earlier terms that would bring Iran’s nuclear activities back onto the table, and that the blockade is expected to last for months. Inflation inside Iran, the outlet said, has passed 50 percent.
Mixed signals in Tehran and Washington
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was unhappy with Iran’s previous offer. Days before the IRNA report, he urged Tehran to “get smart soon,” according to The Week, and he repeated on Thursday that Iran will not be allowed nuclear weapons. Gasoline prices, he said, would “drop like a rock” once the fighting ends. Iran says its nuclear program is strictly civilian.
Voices in Tehran pulled in different directions. Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said: “The Islamic Republic has never shied away from negotiations,” while adding that Iran would not accept “imposed policies under threats.” Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei took a harder line, vowing to defend the nuclear and missile programs and declaring that “the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without America.”
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei urged patience, cautioning against expecting quick results. Military voices were blunter. A senior Revolutionary Guards official warned that any new limited US attack would bring “long and painful strikes” on American positions in the region, and Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi said: “We’ve seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships.”
Two senior Iranian sources told Reuters that Iran has switched on its air defenses and expects “a short, intensive US strike, possibly followed by an Israeli attack.” Reports that Trump would be briefed on options for new strikes had already pushed oil to a four-year high on Thursday. Pakistan has not set a date for another round of talks.
Sources
- Iran sends proposal for negotiations with US to mediator Pakistan
- Iran offers new proposal amid stalled US peace talks
- Iran Sends New Proposal for US Talks Via Pakistani Mediators (The Week)
