Two years ago, a large-scale war felt like a distant hypothetical to the experts who help chart the world’s dangers. Now it tops their list. In the UN’s new Global Risk Report it climbed 16 places since 2024, the steepest rise of any risk tracked.
The report surveyed 1,300 people from government, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and academia, across every region. They scored 28 threats, political, economic, environmental, societal and technological, on likelihood, damage and how ready the world is to cope.
Thirty-six percent of respondents think the effects of large-scale war could reach a significant share of humanity within a year. For seven years out, the figure is 76 percent. War was also the only risk to place in the top six on all four of the survey’s measures: importance, imminence, links to other dangers, and how unprepared institutions are to respond.
Where the worry moved
In the previous round, environmental threats, misinformation and pandemics dominated. This time geopolitical tension, war and a weakening rule of law are at the center. UN Secretary-General António Guterres put it plainly in the foreword. “The findings are sobering. Political risks have moved centre stage,” he wrote. “At the same time, the institutions expected to respond are seen as less able to act.”
It shows up in every region. War and geopolitical tension rank in the top 10 in all seven regions covered, and in the top five in six. Two years ago they made the top five in only one.
Regional detail varies. Weapons of mass destruction entered the top 10 in Central and Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. In Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, people grew more anxious about a global financial crisis, the downsides of artificial intelligence and the rising power of technology companies. AI-related risks also reached the top 10 in Europe and North America. Pandemics and biological threats dropped out of the top 10 everywhere, though Eastern and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa all ranked them among the most pressing two years ago.
Everything feeds everything
No risk stands alone, the report argues. Scarce natural resources, economic fragmentation, misinformation and weakening multilateral institutions all heat up geopolitical tension, and tension makes war likelier. Of the 705 links between risks that respondents identified, the one joining geopolitical tension and war was the strongest.
Worry about AI, other frontier technologies and the concentration of power they allow has grown sharply. Respondents say the multilateral system is least prepared for technological threats.
Climate has not faded. Inaction on climate change is still the single risk rated most important overall, and it ranks high in every region. The authors warn that other environmental risks sliding down the list are not less dangerous, just less visible, and issues that draw less attention often lose funding.
Asked what stands in the way, respondents named weak governance and coordination, a lack of political consensus, and eroding trust and accountability. Poor prioritisation, resistance from the public, politicians or business, and gaps in data came up too. Eighty-six percent said funding for reducing risk is not enough, and the report singles out natural hazards and the possible collapse of multilateral institutions as especially underfunded.
The UN frames the findings as a snapshot of perceptions, not a forecast. Respondents see joint action between governments as by far the most effective way to prevent these risks. “The choice is ours,” Guterres said.
