“Free the Leopards!” The slogan was shouted at regular demonstrations outside the German parliament in January 2023, and it shows how a single weapon had come to stand for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s whole approach to the war in Ukraine.
The mechanics here are simple, and they explain why Berlin’s choice mattered so much. Germany makes most of Europe’s modern heavy tanks, the Leopard 2, and around 2,000 of them sit with European allies. Germany also owns the export licences. So when Scholz hesitated, Poland, which was desperate to send its own, could not do it without the green re-export light from Berlin. Poland said it would deliver its stockpile with or without Berlin’s consent.
Three principles and a slow yes
Scholz gave a short rulebook for his caution. According to Deutsche Welle, the government held to three principles: Ukraine must get as much support as possible, a direct conflict between NATO and Russia must be prevented, and no supporting nation should act alone. Decisions would come only “in close consultation and coordination with our friends and allies.” He added: “We will not allow ourselves to make any excited, rash statements.”
The catch is how that sounded from outside. TIME reported that a new word, “Scholzing,” had gained currency, meaning to communicate good intentions and then find any reason to delay them. Sudha David-Wilp of the German Marshall Fund’s Berlin office said Germany “looks so flat-footed, even though, at the end of the day, it is making immense contributions to Ukraine.” Germany was indeed the third-largest weapons supplier to Kyiv after the U.S. and Britain, and the BBC put it among the top three single donors of military aid.
On Tuesday, January 24, 2023, Der Spiegel reported that Germany had decided to send Leopard 2 tanks, though TIME noted that no formal announcement had yet been made. The reversal came as U.S. officials said the Biden administration also planned to supply tanks. Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesperson for Scholz’s Social Democrats, had been plain about the dependency: “We need political and military cover from the U.S. for this very far-reaching decision.” The BBC called the turnaround sudden and suggested that Scholz had realised he risked isolation among his own allies.
A coalition and a country divided
History weighed on the decision. Ulrike Franke of the European Council on Foreign Relations told TIME that many Germans struggle to picture German tanks rolling east to kill Russian soldiers, because it recalls the Second World War. The BBC added that in a survey shortly before Christmas, 40% of participating Germans said they understood the Kremlin’s blaming of the West for the invasion.
The politics were no easier. A poll by infratest dimap found 46% of Germans in favour of sending heavy tanks and 43% against. The split ran through the coalition: 61% of Green supporters backed deliveries, against 49% in favour and 40% opposed among SPD supporters, while Free Democrat voters were divided. Opposition CDU supporters were 66% in favour. The BBC said Scholz’s indecision split his governing coalition and his own party.
The Zeitenwende, the “turning point” Scholz announced soon after Russia invaded, promised a massive investment in an outdated military and a more assertive role in European defence. The BBC called the transformation under way but peppered with setbacks. Ukrainian military officials had said in December they needed about 300 tanks for a successful defence.
Sources
- Why Germany delayed sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine (BBC News, Katya Adler)
- Why Germany Agonized Over Sending Leopard 2 Tanks to Ukraine (TIME, Yasmeen Serhan)
- Why Germany hesitates on sending battle tanks to Ukraine (Deutsche Welle)
