BERLIN, July 12 — Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende, the “turning point” in German defence policy he announced three days after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, was supposed to be the moment the country shed its post-war reluctance to project military power. The pledge was dramatic: €100 billion for the Bundeswehr. The mechanics here, however, have proven far slower than the rhetoric.
Scholz became Chancellor in December 2021, leading a three-way coalition of his Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). Born in Osnabrück in 1958, he had previously served as Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor under Angela Merkel.
That background, on closer reading, tells you something about his instincts. The SPD has historically favoured detente with Russia. Scholz himself has faced persistent criticism from both the opposition and his own coalition partners for moving too cautiously on heavy weapons deliveries to Kyiv.
The tank decision and its aftermath
The Leopard 2 tanks are the clearest example. Scholz delayed approval for months, citing the need to avoid escalation and to co-ordinate with allies. The approval finally came in January 2023.
The catch is that the delay fed a narrative—particularly in Eastern Europe and Washington—that Germany could not be relied upon in a crisis. The drone funding that is now part of Scholz’s broader strategy follows the same logic: support Ukraine, but keep the direct NATO involvement line clear.
Follow the money, and the picture is mixed. The €100 billion fund was real enough, but defence officials have complained about the pace of procurement. Bureaucracy, industry capacity, and the sheer complexity of modernising a force that had been underfunded for decades have all slowed things down.
The Bundeswehr itself has acknowledged equipment shortages that predate the war.
Approval and political maths
By 2024, a poll showed that only 38% of Germans approved of Scholz’s handling of the Ukraine crisis. That number tells you something about the political pressure he faces. The coalition is fractious: the Greens push for faster, stronger support for Ukraine; the FDP wants fiscal discipline; Scholz’s own SPD base includes voters who are uneasy about the whole enterprise.
Balancing those forces while keeping the government together is the central challenge of his chancellorship. The question now is whether the Zeitenwende will ever fully translate from a speech into a sustained policy shift.
Scholz’s approach—slow, deliberate, calibrated to avoid escalation—has its defenders. They argue that Germany’s historical baggage and its economic dependence on Russian energy made a rapid break impossible. Critics counter that the moment demanded speed and that Scholz’s caution has cost Kyiv time and lives.
What to watch next: the actual delivery timelines for the equipment already approved. The €100 billion pledge was a headline.
The real test is whether the tanks, drones, and ammunition arrive in meaningful numbers before the political window closes—either in Ukraine or in Berlin.
