THE HAGUE, July 12 — The Italian counterintelligence operation that led to the arrest of two Italian citizens and the expulsion of two Russian diplomats in 2023 is not an isolated incident. It is the latest chapter in a concerted pattern of Russian intelligence activity that has swept across Europe since 2020, intensifying markedly after the war in Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Against this backdrop, European capitals have been forced to reckon with a sustained campaign of infiltration targeting their governments, militaries, and defence industries.
The Italian case, which saw Moscow’s diplomats sent packing and two locals taken into custody, fits into a wider mosaic of espionage that has stretched from Oslo to Prague. In 2020, German authorities arrested a Russian scientist for passing secrets about the Eurofighter jet to the GRU, Moscow’s military intelligence service.
The following year, Bulgaria expelled two Russian diplomats for espionage. In the same year, the Czech Republic took the dramatic step of expelling 18 Russian diplomats after accusing the GRU of involvement in a 2014 ammunition depot explosion on Czech soil. The corridors of power in Brussels and national security ministries across the bloc have been on high alert.
In 2022, Norway arrested a Russian spy who had been posing as a Brazilian researcher. That same year, the Netherlands expelled 14 Russian diplomats for espionage.
The tempo of operations had clearly picked up.
The Ukraine effect
The war in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, has sharpened the stakes. Russian espionage efforts have become more aggressive, particularly against NATO members. The European Union has responded by strengthening counterintelligence cooperation among member states and by expelling Russian diplomats in waves.
What is at stake is the integrity of European decision-making and the security of its most sensitive technologies. The timeline of these events reveals a consistent and deliberate strategy.
From the scientist in Germany to the fake Brazilian researcher in Norway, from the ammunition depot in the Czech Republic to the diplomatic expulsions in Sofia and The Hague, the pattern is unmistakable. Moscow has sought to burrow into the institutions of its European neighbours. The wider picture is one of a continent on guard.
The Italian operation in 2023 was a reminder that no member state is immune. While the details of that particular case remain under judicial seal, the broader trajectory is clear: Russian intelligence has been active across Europe for years, and the war in Ukraine has only accelerated its efforts.
What to watch next is whether the European Union’s enhanced counterintelligence cooperation can keep pace. The expulsion of diplomats is a visible response, but the deeper work of protecting defence secrets and government communications is a long game. The arrests in Italy, the expulsions in the Netherlands, and the indictments in Germany all point to a struggle that shows no signs of abating.
