“I am convinced they will falter and eventually negotiate,” retired General Frank McKenzie said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” McKenzie, a former chief of US Central Command who served under both Presidents Trump and Biden, argued that the joint US-Israeli airstrikes would badly weaken Iran’s military.
He drew on years of war-gaming. “Having run numerous simulations over the years at Central Command, we find ourselves advancing more rapidly than expected at this juncture in all the scenarios I’ve reviewed,” he said.
Missiles first, then the strait
The immediate goal, McKenzie said, is to cut down Iran’s missile and drone strength with precise airstrikes and so loosen its hold on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran blocked the strait in response to the US and Israeli action, a step that has contributed to a spike in global fuel prices and widespread shortages.
“What we’re doing right now is we’re reducing Iranian ability to target ships in the strait through their short range missiles, their drones and other activities,” he said. The method is constant air cover. “We do that by maintaining air superiority over southern Iran on a 24/7 basis, looking for where these missiles are and striking them relentlessly,” he added. “Once we reduce those to a very low level, then you’ll be able to go in, if necessary, sweep for mines.”
Kharg Island
McKenzie noted that the US has had many years to plan for seizing the strait, along with Kharg Island, which houses the bulk of Iran’s oil production. “If you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely,” he said. Pressure has to stay high, in his view: “We need to continue to press them very hard, because that is, in fact, the only thing they will respond to.”
No end date
How long the war will last is unclear. Tehran keeps refusing direct negotiations with the US, and its leaders are demanding full compensation for the destruction of the fighting.
With the war entering its second month, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his team were allegedly looking to wrap up the operation by mid-April, possibly with ground forces deep inside Iran. The president has said the US would meet several goals, among them destroying Iran’s nuclear program and ending Tehran’s ability to control its terror network in the Middle East.
