Fewer than 100. That is how many American service members Estonia now hosts, down from a rotational force that normally runs between 500 and 700. Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur gave the figure to Estonian broadcaster ERR in early July 2026, and Poland’s Defence24 reported it on 6 July as the lowest level since the 2022 bilateral agreement put U.S. rotations in place.
Those who remain are mostly support and service units. The combat troops left when their summer rotation ended, and nobody in Tallinn can say how many will take their place.
A review in Washington
The holdup sits at the Pentagon, which paused new European deployments while it reviews where American forces should be stationed. Kalev Stoicescu, who chairs the Riigikogu’s national defence committee, put it bluntly: “They began the rotation, but its implementation is suspended until a final decision on the presence of US armed forces in Europe. That decision could be made within six months.”
Pevkur said the usual pattern had been broken. “The Americans traditionally rotate in summer. That process is underway now, but because of the force structure review, we don’t yet know how many troops and which units will arrive.”
The minister told ERR that SACEUR and the commander of U.S. Army Europe had assured him a new unit should reach Estonia during the summer and stay until the end of the year. Its size is unknown. Beyond December there is nothing at all. “That will become clear from the Pentagon’s six-month review,” Pevkur said.
Poland holds the key
Estonia’s next rotation is tied to one headed for Poland, and that one has been just as uncertain. Mid-May reports said the Pentagon had cancelled the deployment of about 4,000 soldiers from an armored brigade to Poland. Weeks later the picture shifted. Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said Stephanie Holmes, the U.S. Deputy Defense Attaché, told him “the rotation is returning,” with American troops due to complete it in Poland within weeks. About 10,000 U.S. troops are currently stationed there.
Pevkur said that on this basis, “the number of US troops should increase in the coming weeks,” though he gave no figure.
Lithuania has already gone through a gap of its own. More than 1,000 American troops with tanks and armored vehicles left in June with no confirmed replacement, according to Euromaidan Press, the first such interruption since 2020.
What Estonia has left
Stoicescu was blunt about the politics. Washington, he said, has kept eastern-flank countries waiting however much of their GDP they spend on defence. “We can sing, dance and even hop on one leg. But in the end, the decision is made by the White House and the U.S. administration based on America’s own interests and vision.” If American forces stay anywhere in Europe, he added, the eastern flank is where they should be.
For now Estonia leans on its own forces and on the NATO battlegroups that cycle through the Baltic states. The UK-led group of British and French troops has been in Estonia since 2017, and its rotations are proceeding on schedule.
Sources
- US troops have left Estonia for an unknown period of time (ERR News)
- Fewer and fewer U.S. troops in Estonia. What about Poland? (Defence24)
- US soldiers left for a "summer rotation." Estonia doesn't know how many are coming back, or when (Euromaidan Press)
