“A group of mainly oil-producing countries did everything to block the reference to phasing out fossil fuels.” That was the verdict of Wopke Hoekstra, the EU Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, after COP30 wrapped up in Belém, Brazil. Delegates left on Friday with a deal signed by 194 nations, a pile of new money for adaptation and no binding commitment to end fossil fuel use or stop deforestation.
Hoekstra added: “Instead, on an initiative led by Brazil, we will form a large coalition of the willing committed to a concrete roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels.”
Money for adaptation
The one area with a clear number was adaptation finance. The final text calls for support to rise to around US$120 billion per year by 2035, about three times the current pledge. Developing countries, which tend to take the worst of floods, storms and droughts with the least money to respond, welcomed the increase.
Experts pointed to the other side of the ledger. The global adaptation finance gap still exceeds US$300 billion per year, so even the new target covers only part of the need. How the money will be shared out is still being worked out. The agreement does urge better reporting and tracking of adaptation funds, in the hope of making the flow more predictable.
Under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, developed countries have a mandatory obligation to provide climate finance, and the conference reaffirmed it. A two-year programme will look at how to estimate finance gaps, improve transparency and design more reliable funding. Countries also adopted 10 thematic agreements under the Global Mutirao Agreement, covering areas such as just energy transition, livelihood protection and frameworks for implementation and transparency.
Two roadmaps, no teeth
COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago announced two voluntary roadmaps, one on fossil fuels and one on deforestation. Both sit outside the formal COP30 text. Countries can sign up and report progress, but nothing penalises a country that falls short.
More than 80 countries backed the fossil fuel roadmap, among them Brazil, South Korea, Germany, France, Colombia, Chile, Kenya and Mexico. Saudi Arabia, Russia, India and China pushed back on any formal agreement to phase out fossil fuels. India, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa also objected to binding phase-out wording, arguing from national energy needs, development priorities and inadequate climate finance. India and several BRICS members insisted that each country must set its own energy transition.
The result is a broad commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels” with no timeline. The forest roadmap, which countries are to develop over the coming year, also stays voluntary. Nations differed widely on how fast deforestation should fall, and the text sets no global end date for forest loss. That gap stands out because the talks took place at the edge of the Amazon.
A changed room
For the first time in three decades, the United States sent no official delegation. The absence, in one analysis, weakened the bargaining influence of developed countries and left BRICS members as a decisive bloc. They helped remove the phase-out language, won flexibility for developing nations and pressed for attention to trade-related climate barriers such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
National climate plans, known as NDCs, were the other focus. More than 120 countries updated or strengthened theirs ahead of the conference. South Korea, for one, announced a plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 53% to 61% by 2035 compared with 2018 levels. None of that is enforceable. Governments are expected to update their NDCs, run adaptation projects and improve reporting next, with the thematic agreements shaping negotiations leading to COP31.
Sources
- COP30 Ends in Belém: Big Money for Adaptation, Big Misses on Fossil Fuels
- COP30 Outcomes: Roadmap to End Deforestation
Sources
- 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference – Wikipedia
- COP30 Ends in Belém: Big Money for Adaptation, Big Misses on…
