Beijing has called itself neutral on Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. It has also kept deepening its political and economic ties with Moscow. In the spring of 2024 the two halves of that position collided in public, in the weeks before a peace conference in Switzerland.
A row at the Shangri-La Dialogue
On June 2, speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused China of “working hard” to keep countries away from the Swiss summit. He also called it unfortunate that China “is an instrument in the hands of” Vladimir Putin. Analysts told VOA it was a rare, open rebuke.
China’s foreign ministry rejected the charge the next day. Spokesperson Mao Ning said: “Not attending it does not mean not supporting peace.” She added that China “has never sat idly by or fueled the flames, still less profiteered from the conflict.” The ministry said it hoped the summit would not be used to create bloc confrontation.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi then pointed to a different document. At a press conference with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, he cited “six common understandings” on a political settlement, issued jointly by China and Brazil the month before. In one week, Wang said, 45 countries from five continents had responded positively. China would decide independently which of the many summits to join.
Ukrainian and Chinese diplomats kept talking. Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong and First Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha held consultations in Beijing the day after Wang’s remarks. Sybiha urged China to attend and “make a practical contribution to achieving a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.”
Why Beijing stayed away
Analysts offered several explanations. Zhiqun Zhu, of Bucknell University, said Beijing prefers its own vision to a conference it cannot shape. Temur Umarov, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said China holds that the Western countries attending are not sincerely pro-peace. Zhu added that without Russia and China, “the summit’s significance will be reduced.” Volodymyr Dubovyk, in Odesa, went further: there had been some hope in Kyiv that Beijing would stay neutral, he said, but “these hopes are now gone.”
A month earlier, RFE/RL had reported that Brussels was growing sceptical about any Chinese role in a peace process. One EU official said Beijing wanted no full-blown summit, would probably send an envoy rather than a senior official, and wanted other peace plans on the table beside Zelenskyy’s. The same official said Brussels suspected China was clearing the way for Russia to join similar meetings later.
The Russia trade question
China’s own outline for peace, unveiled in February 2023, has been criticised by Western officials as too accommodating to Moscow. There is no direct evidence that China has sold arms to Russia. It does sell dual-use goods, including machines, civilian drones and semiconductors, which Russia uses to make weapons. During a trip to Beijing in April 2024, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called China “overwhelmingly the No. 1 supplier” of Russia’s military industry. French officials said President Emmanuel Macron meant to press Xi Jinping on the issue when they met in Paris on May 6.
Theresa Fallon, of the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies in Brussels, summed up the mood in the third year of the war: the idea that China could play a constructive role “is wearing a bit thin.”
Sources
- China defends Ukraine stance ahead of Switzerland peace summit (VOA, William Yang)
- Xi Heads To Europe Looking For A Larger Chinese Role In Ukraine (RFE/RL, Reid Standish)
