Friedrich Merz’s conservatives won Germany’s federal election, and then discovered how little that settles. The CDU/CSU took 28.5 per cent of the vote, up from 24.1 per cent in 2021, which makes Merz the likely next chancellor but leaves him well short of a majority.
The Social Democrats had a grim night. Their 16.4 per cent, against 25.7 in 2021, is the worst result in the party’s federal history. The Alternative for Germany doubled its share to 20.8 per cent from 10.4, and it is now the strongest force in all five eastern states. The Greens, led into the race by Robert Habeck, managed 11.6 per cent, down from 14.7.
The Left was the one party to improve markedly, climbing to 8.8 per cent from 4.9. The Free Democrats fell out of parliament with 4.3 per cent, a drop from 11.4. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance missed by the narrowest of margins: 4.972 per cent, which a spokesperson for the Federal Returning Officer put at roughly 14,000 votes short of the five-per-cent hurdle.
The arithmetic
The new Bundestag has 630 seats, so a majority needs 316. The CDU/CSU hold 208. The SPD have 121, which makes a two-party government possible. The Greens have 85 members, and a deal with them would fall short. The AfD has 151 seats and the Left 64. The Südschleswigscher Wählerverband, the party of the Danish and Frisian minority, kept its mandate because it is exempt from the threshold.
Merz has ruled out working with the AfD, parts of which are classed as right-wing extremist. Everything therefore points to a partnership with the SPD. He has said he wants a government in place by Easter. Olaf Scholz stays in office until then.
A bigger turnout, a smaller chamber
Between 83.0 and 83.1 per cent of voters took part, against 76.4 per cent in 2021. It is the highest figure since reunification in 1990. Of the 59.2 million people called to vote, 42 per cent were 60 or older.
The chamber itself shrank by more than 100 seats. A reform capped it at 630 by scrapping overhang and compensatory mandates, which had a habit of inflating the house. Under the new rules, a candidate who wins a constituency on the first vote only enters if the party’s second votes are enough to back it up.
The vote came seven months early. Scholz’s coalition collapsed in 2024 after months of friction, he lost his majority, and he then deliberately lost a confidence motion so that President Frank-Walter Steinmeier could approve a new election. It was the fourth snap federal election in post-war German history.
Sources
- CDU/CSU wins the Bundestag elections
- German election results explained in graphics
- 2025 German federal election
