ISLAMABAD, July 12 — A new analysis of global oil transit routes offers a sobering look at the world’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, and the limited alternatives available should that narrow waterway ever be disrupted. Several pipelines exist that bypass the strait, but none come close to matching its daily throughput. According to industry data, the Strait of Hormuz sees about 17 million barrels of oil and related products pass through its waters each day.
The combined capacity of all alternative pipelines is roughly 6.5 million barrels per day — a significant figure, but one that still falls well short. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, runs from the Abqaiq oil processing facility to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Its design capacity is 5 million barrels per day, though as of 2023 it was operating at about 2 million barrels per day. For patients following energy markets, the encouraging part is that this pipeline has room to increase throughput, but early findings suggest that any such ramp-up would still leave a large gap. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, or ADCOP, runs from Habshan to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
It has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day. Iraq’s Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which connects northern Iraqi oil fields to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, has a capacity of 0.9 million barrels per day.
However, this pipeline is often disrupted due to regional instability, making its contribution unreliable. Iran has a pipeline to the Caspian Sea, but its export capacity is limited and does not meaningfully offset strait traffic. For natural gas, the picture is even more constrained.
Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), has no alternative pipeline. Its gas is exported exclusively via tankers that must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The total alternative pipeline capacity of about 6.5 million barrels per day is far less than the 17 million barrels per day that transits the strait.
Expanding these pipelines would take years and require significant investment. This is not a quick-fix scenario.
What to watch next: whether any of the Gulf states accelerate plans to expand existing pipeline capacity, or whether the global energy system continues to rely on the strait as a chokepoint. For now, the numbers speak clearly — there is no ready replacement for the waterway that carries the world’s oil.
