Last Friday, Saudi Arabia shut the pipeline that carried its crude to Red Sea ports. It had come under attack. The closure matters because Riyadh had been sending much of its oil that way since the war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula.
The attacker’s position is the story. Houthi forces have taken Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, including strategic islands near Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. “The Houthi capture of strategic islands near Bab el-Mandeb is a game changer,” said Middle East analyst Fawaz Gerges. “It changes the balance of power and gives them far greater geopolitical and geoeconomic leverage over Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, the United States and global trade.”
Two chokepoints, one squeeze
Regional officials and analysts quoted by The Jerusalem Post describe a simple calculation. With Iran choking Hormuz and the Houthis threatening Red Sea shipping, oil prices and inflation climb, and the Gulf has less reason to expect Washington to settle the crisis. The choice put to Gulf states is to absorb the mounting economic pain or engage with Iran to protect trade and energy flows.
Reuters reported that Donald Trump had declined a Saudi request for US strikes on the Houthis. That, combined with the costs, is convincing some Gulf capitals that talking to Tehran is a necessity, regional sources said. Asked on Sunday whether he worried about Gulf states meeting Iran, Trump said that was up to them.
The diplomacy is shaky. A Monday meeting in Salalah, Oman, between Gulf foreign ministers and Iran’s Abbas Araqchi, meant to produce a temporary framework for shipping through Hormuz, was postponed over disagreements on the terms of the talks. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said it was delayed “in the interests of consensus.” Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he had held good talks with UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in New Delhi, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit. “We agreed to put the past aside and look forward to the future,” he said.
An old war, a new lever
The Houthis, drawn from Yemen’s Zaydi Shi’ite minority, fought a series of wars with Saudi Arabia before seizing Sanaa in 2014, which brought a Saudi-led intervention the following year. They survived years of air strikes and became one of Iran’s most effective allies. “The Houthis are not traditional proxies,” said former US negotiator Aaron David Miller. “They can weaponize geography and have a dramatic impact on the international economy and on the global oil economy.”
One regional official called it “a chess game” for Tehran. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said the Gulf states may conclude they have to “cut a deal with the Iranians on their own,” because “America can’t get them out of this quagmire.”
A Gulf source added an irony: Washington’s economic pressure on Iran is working, but it is also pushing America’s Gulf partners to ask whether confrontation with Tehran can last.
