KIEV, July 13 — The mechanics here are straightforward, and they have been grinding away for over two years. Since April 2024, Ukraine has waged a sustained campaign of drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and storage depots, aiming to throttle the fuel supply that powers the Russian military machine. The logic is one of industrial attrition: hit the processing capacity, and the front lines feel the pinch.
The catch is that this is not a sprint but a long, grinding siege on a massive industrial base. Russia’s refining capacity was estimated at 5.5 million barrels per day in 2023—a vast system with many targets.
Ukraine has been using domestically produced long-range drones, including the UJ-22 Airborne, which have ranges up to 800 kilometers. That reach has allowed Ukrainian forces to strike deep inside Russian territory, far beyond the immediate battlefields in eastern Ukraine. Follow the money, or rather, follow the fuel.
The strikes have been methodical. Notable attacks include the April 2024 strike on the Taneco refinery in Tatarstan, the May 2024 attack on the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov Oblast, and the February 2025 strike on the Volgograd refinery.
Each hit removes a piece of the processing puzzle. By February 2025, Ukrainian officials claimed to have damaged over 15 Russian refineries, and they estimated that the cumulative effect had cut output by an estimated 10-15%. A 10-15% cut in refining capacity is a serious operational problem for a wartime economy.
The immediate consequence has been a scramble for replacement supply. Russia has been forced to import gasoline from Belarus and Kazakhstan to plug the gap. That is a telling sign: a major energy exporter reduced to buying fuel from its neighbours because its own refineries are burning.
On closer reading, the campaign reveals a deliberate strategy of deep-strike disruption. The drones are not simply targeting military depots; they are going after the industrial infrastructure that keeps the entire war effort moving.
A tank without fuel is just a very expensive paperweight. The strikes aim to create a bottleneck not at the wellhead, where Russia still pumps plenty of crude, but at the refinery gate, where crude is turned into the diesel and gasoline that actually drives tanks, trucks, and aircraft. The campaign has been running since April 2024.
That is over two years of persistent pressure. The choice of targets—refineries in Tatarstan, Rostov Oblast, and Volgograd—suggests a deliberate effort to spread the damage across the system, making it harder for Russia to concentrate repairs or reroute supply chains.
Each strike chips away at the margin. What to watch next. The Russian refining system is large, but it is not infinitely resilient.
If the pace of strikes continues, the estimated 10-15% output cut could widen. The forced imports from Belarus and Kazakhstan are a stopgap, not a solution. The question is whether Ukraine can sustain the drone supply and strike tempo, and whether Russia can protect its remaining refineries or accelerate repairs fast enough to keep the army fuelled.
The arithmetic of attrition does not favour the side that is losing processing capacity.
