KYIV, July 11 — The shift is quietly underway in Ukraine’s war strategy, and it is less about holding ground and more about reaching farther. By March 2025, Ukrainian military sources say a new “long-range impact” command will be fully operational, designed to strike deep behind Russian lines. The timing is deliberate.
Russia began its 2025 offensive back in January, with renewed attacks grinding through Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. Ukraine’s answer is not a defensive wall but a coordinated campaign to dismantle the logistics that feed those offensives.
The initial priorities are clear: Russian logistics hubs in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts, as well as energy infrastructure that powers military operations. The command will also target command centers in occupied Crimea, including the Sevastopol naval base. This is not a solo effort.
The command will coordinate with NATO intelligence-sharing agreements, particularly satellite imagery from the US and UK.
The Drone Math
Ukraine’s success here hinges on two variables: production and defense. Ukrainian officials have stated that sustained production rates are critical. The other variable is Russian air defense upgrades.
In 2024, Russian systems intercepted 70-80% of Ukrainian drones. The new command will need to find ways around that, or accept heavy attrition rates.
The command represents a structural change in how Ukraine fights.
What’s Changing
What’s changing is the geometry of the battlefield. For most of the war, Ukraine has focused on defending front-line cities and counterattacking to retake territory. The long-range impact command shifts the center of gravity to Russia’s rear areas.
Disrupting supply lines for the 2025 offensive means hitting ammunition depots, fuel convoys, and rail hubs before they ever reach the front. The Sevastopol target is particularly significant.
Crimea has been a staging ground for Russian naval operations and missile launches throughout the war. Striking the naval base there would complicate Russia’s ability to project power from the Black Sea. None of this is guaranteed.
The 70-80% interception rate from 2024 is a hard ceiling that Ukraine must either breach or work around. But the command’s creation signals that Kyiv sees long-range strike as a permanent pillar of its war effort, not a temporary tactic.
What to watch next: whether Ukraine can scale production fast enough to sustain a high-volume campaign, and whether Russian air defense upgrades can close the window before it fully opens. The command is expected to be fully operational by March 2025. That deadline is the real test.
