No new American aid for Ukraine had been announced since January 9, 2025. That was the finding of the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker in its update through February, and it set the tone for the month. The final package came under the outgoing Biden administration and was military only: worth USD 500 million (EUR 480 million), made up of missiles for air defense and for air-to-surface use, along with gear for F-16 jets. Since Donald Trump took office on January 20, nothing had followed. The only comparable gap came in January 2024, during a deadlock in Congress.
Europe fills the space
Europe kept announcing. Over the first two months of the year, Denmark committed EUR 690 million, Norway EUR 610 million, Germany EUR 450 million and the UK EUR 360 million. Sweden topped them all with EUR 1.1 billion. The European Commission also paid out the first loan to Ukraine, EUR 3 billion. By Kiel’s count, Europe had allocated EUR 138 billion since the war began, which put it EUR 23 billion ahead of the US.
On weapons alone, Washington still came out ahead, though barely. Its military total since February 2022 stood near EUR 65 billion, roughly EUR 1 billion above the European figure.
The spread inside Europe was wide. Estonia and Denmark top the list, each above 2 percent of GDP as measured before the war. Germany and the UK are at about 0.4 to 0.5 percent, and France, Italy and Spain at only 0.1 to 0.2 percent. Taro Nishikawa, who leads the tracker project, warned that the American pause leaves European capitals under growing pressure to give more, in money and in arms. His colleague Christoph Trebesch argued that if the five biggest European states came close to the Nordic and Baltic effort, the continent could mostly make up for lost US money.
The front line
On the ground, the Institute for the Study of War reported on February 3 that January 2025 was the second-bloodiest month for Russian troops since the full-scale invasion began, while their territorial gains shrank. Citing the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, ISW said Russia lost 48,240 troops that month, more than three motorized rifle divisions. Geolocated evidence showed gains of about 498 square kilometers in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, an average of 16.1 square kilometers a day. ISW worked that out to roughly 96 casualties for every square kilometer taken.
December 2024 had been worse for Russian losses, at 48,670 by the Ukrainian count, with 593 square kilometers gained. So gains fell by about 100 square kilometers from December to January while the casualty rate stayed about the same.
The push centred on the rest of Donetsk Oblast, including Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Chasiv Yar. Pokrovsk was the focal point of Russian ground assaults, and frontal attacks remained among Moscow’s most used tactics. ISW had seen advances begin to slow from November into December 2024. Its analysts said it was unclear whether the Russian command would accept such losses if the pace kept falling “as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk.”
Sources
- ISW: Russian advances slow despite maintaining high casualty rates (Euromaidan Press)
- Ukraine Support Tracker: European support for Ukraine continues steadily, US assistance stalls (Kiel Institute)
