Ukraine carried out 361 recorded attacks in a narrow strip of the occupied south between January 1 and June 30, 2026. The zone covers 20 km either side of the R-280 highway, plus 10 km around fixed road crossings into Crimea. ACLED, the conflict-data group that counted them, says nine in ten were drone strikes, and that in the second quarter they came nearly every day.
The mechanics here are simple: hit the supply line, not the front line.
Three phases
The R-280, which Russian occupation authorities renamed “Novorossiya,” is a 700-kilometer coastal road from Rostov-on-Don through Mariupol, Berdiansk and Melitopol into Crimea. It matters more since the 2022 attack on the Kerch bridge, after which fuel and other hazardous cargo could no longer cross it. Russia uses the road to supply both the southern front and the Crimean garrison.
ACLED sees the campaign in stages. In January and February, roughly 20 to 25 attacks a month went after radars, air defenses and depots, mainly in Crimea, clearing airspace for what followed. Then came vehicles. Attacks in the corridor rose from 46 in March to 80 in April, and strikes on trucks, fuel tankers and convoys went from 11 to 30. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense calls it a “logistics lockdown.”
After a dip in May, the pace jumped again in June, from 25 weekly attacks in late May to 42 in early June, and the targets widened to bridges. The Chonhar road bridge was hit on June 8. The Henichesk bridge was struck on June 10, 17 and 20, Vladyslavivka on June 18 and 19, Volodymyrivka on June 25 and 26, and Novoazovsk on June 28 and 29. Of 14 recorded attacks on Henichesk since January, eight fell in June.
Russia adapts, and Ukraine follows
Here is the catch for Moscow. When Russia closed the R-280 to military traffic in May, added convoy escorts and shifted to secondary roads, Ukrainian drones went after the bypasses. When it began moving supplies by rail, rail became a target. Pontoon crossings built beside damaged bridges came under fire in June. In July, between the 1st and the 25th, ACLED recorded attacks on at least 200 vessels in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea, which briefly halted navigation on the Don-Azov Canal and sharply cut Kerch Strait traffic.
On the ground, Russian units are trying camouflage, decoys, mobile fire teams along key routes and netting over highways, according to an analysis from the Atlantic Council. The catch, it argues, is the sheer territory involved, and Russia has limited air defenses to spread across it.
Follow the money
The economics favor Kyiv. Ukrainian forces reportedly rely on domestically made loitering munitions and anti-bridge drones costing under $50,000 each, against an estimated $2 million for a Storm Shadow cruise missile. About 10 Ukrainian drone units, with roughly 5,000 to 8,000 personnel, are reportedly working against the supply network of an estimated 250,000 to 300,000 Russian soldiers.
The Atlantic Council writer David Kirichenko notes that when the invasion began in 2022, drones played a supporting role and tanks and artillery led. Four years on, he writes, drones are the dominant weapons and cause most casualties. ACLED expects the campaign to continue for months unless Russia rebuilds air defenses over the next three to six months.
Sources
- Ukrainian drones are cutting Russian logistics and reshaping the battlefield
- Ukraine’s drone campaign is dismantling Russia’s military supply network in the occupied south
