In July, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry counted 35 attacks on ships in port, 22 on ships at sea and 67 on port facilities. Over all of the previous year, ships in Ukrainian ports were targeted 14 times. That jump, reported by TRT World on August 7, shows how far the Black Sea has turned into a contested trade route.
Both sides are hitting ports. Russia’s attacks on Odesa-area ports are landing on the route that carries over 90 percent of Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Commercial traffic at Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny has largely stopped since the second half of July.
Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine’s agricultural policy and food minister, said shipowners paused sending vessels to load farm products as of July 22. Alternative routes by land and river would not hit full capacity until the end of August, he said, and even then could not move half of what the Black Sea ports normally handle. Maersk suspended its feeder service through Chornomorsk and began rerouting cargo to Constanta in Romania, warning that bookings might be cancelled or moved.
Russian ports under fire too
Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian ports, grain terminals and commercial vessels along the Black Sea and Azov coasts. TRT reported that Russia’s grain terminals at Taman were reportedly attacked, and that ship-movement limits in the Sea of Azov, in place since July 10, hampered operations there. Novorossiysk and Tuapse are still shipping grain, but loading is slower. The non-profit Rusgrain Union warned that export corridors could close if conditions persist.
The accounts differ. Russia’s Defence Ministry says it struck military targets, while Kyiv says many of the hit facilities and ships served civilian trade. Both capitals deny going after civilian shipping.
What the markets are doing
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was signed in Istanbul in July 2022 by Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the UN. While it ran, more than 1,000 ships carried about 33 million metric tonnes of grain to world markets. After Russia withdrew in July 2023, Ukraine opened another corridor along the western Black Sea coast, close to Romanian and Bulgarian waters. Intensifying attacks now cloud that route’s future and the delivery of this year’s harvest.
Ukraine’s grain and oilseed production is expected to rise from 80 million metric tonnes last year to 81 million this year, with agricultural goods making up around 60 percent of its exports. The UN World Food Programme warned that continued attacks on shipping routes could deepen global food insecurity, with African and Middle Eastern importers most exposed.
Energy is caught up as well. Adalytica reported on September 26 that Ukraine said it hit Russia’s Kuibyshev refinery near Samara, while Russia said it downed 297 Ukrainian drones overnight. Attacks on Russian refineries have helped tighten diesel supply and lift prices, according to Trump. The same report said Zelenskyy, in New York, was pressing for a truce on strikes against energy infrastructure and a moratorium on Black Sea attacks, plus more Patriot air-defense systems. Any cut in attacks, it said, could lower insurance costs and ease pressure on fuel and food prices.
Sources
- Russia-Ukraine drone strikes pressure oil and grain markets
- TRT World – Black Sea strikes by Russia, Ukraine disrupt global grain shipments
